Visit probability and accessibility within space–time prism of activity program

Space–time prism (STP) is widely applied to measure individuals’ ability to reach opportunities given the resource limitations. The majority of STP models treat prism-based accessibility as binary measures, wherein all locations within a prism are assumed equally accessible while others are deemed inaccessible. Although a few STP models examined heterogeneous interiors by modeling visit probabilities within the STPs, they primarily focused on trip-level analysis and did not explore the application for accessibility measurement. This study proposes a model framework based on multi-state supernetworks for constructing and estimating the probabilistic STPs of daily activity programs. The estimation is implemented with latent class models to account for individual heterogeneities in travel and activity participation. Based on the probabilistic STPs, we suggest a space–time accessibility measurement incorporating visit probabilities. We validate the model framework using mobility trajectory data collected in the Netherlands and demonstrate that the visit probability model can effectively capture the probabilistic STP interiors and the proposed accessibility measurement can provide a comprehensive evaluation of accessibility in the presence of activity chains.