The new modelling method in urban development : case study in Rotterdam

Land-use transition, energy consumption, and temperature fluctuation are the three dominant topics we have investigated in this research. In the last century, 38 heat waves occurred in Europe, of which eleven were after 1900 and six after 2000 (IPCC, 2007). Local-climate changes due to urbanization are epitomized by the urban heat island (UHI), which mainly focuses on the interaction of land use and temperature. However, energy is also an important issue when we investigate the sustainable urban development. This research detects correlations between land-use transition, energy consumption, and temperature fluctuation in the Rotterdam area from 1996 till now. We use a series of maps to illustrate the relationship of temperature fluctuation and energy consumption. These two variables are linked via land-use maps. From the data set, the spatial parameters are estimated that have a significant effect on the correlation between temperature fluctuation and energy consumption. Finally we draw conclusions on the Rotterdam 2050 city scenario, taking the found spatial parameters into consideration.