Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion

Vincent C. Müller, Nick Bostrom

Onderzoeksoutput: Hoofdstuk in Boek/Rapport/CongresprocedureConferentiebijdrageAcademicpeer review

232 Citaten (Scopus)

Samenvatting

There is, in some quarters, concern about high–level machine intelligence and superintelligent AI coming up in a few decades, bringing with it significant risks for humanity. In other quarters, these issues are ignored or considered science fiction. We wanted to clarify what the distribution of opinions actually is, what probability the best experts currently assign to high–level machine intelligence coming up within a particular time–frame, which risks they see with that development, and how fast they see these developing. We thus designed a brief questionnaire and distributed it to four groups of experts in 2012/2013. The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040–2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075. Experts expect that systems will move on to superintelligence in less than 30 years thereafter. They estimate the chance is about one in three that this development turns out to be ‘bad’ or ‘extremely bad’ for humanity.
Originele taal-2Engels
TitelFundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence
RedacteurenVincent C. Müller
Plaats van productieCham
UitgeverijSpringer
Pagina's555-572
Aantal pagina's18
ISBN van elektronische versie978-3-319-26485-1
ISBN van geprinte versie978-3-319-79960-5, 978-3-319-26483-7
DOI's
StatusGepubliceerd - 18 jun. 2016
Extern gepubliceerdJa

Publicatie series

NaamSynthese Library (SYLI)
Volume376

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