Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

A. Kosgodagan, O. Morales-Nápoles, J. Maljaars, W.M.G. Courage

Onderzoeksoutput: Hoofdstuk in Boek/Rapport/CongresprocedureConferentiebijdrageAcademicpeer review

2 Citaten (Scopus)
60 Downloads (Pure)

Samenvatting

Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to elicit indirectly transition probabilities for a Markov chain that describes how each bridge type deteriorates in time. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn.

Originele taal-2Engels
TitelLife-Cycle of Engineering Systems
SubtitelEmphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure - 5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering, IALCCE 2016, 16-19 October 2016, Delft, The Netherlands
Plaats van producties.l.
UitgeverijCRC Press/Balkema
Pagina's2130-2137
Aantal pagina's8
ISBN van geprinte versie9781138028470
StatusGepubliceerd - 2017
Evenement5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering (IALCCE 2016) - Delft, Nederland
Duur: 16 okt 201619 okt 2016
Congresnummer: 5
http://www.ialcce2016.org/

Congres

Congres5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering (IALCCE 2016)
Verkorte titelIALCCE 2016
LandNederland
StadDelft
Periode16/10/1619/10/16
Internet adres

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  • Citeer dit

    Kosgodagan, A., Morales-Nápoles, O., Maljaars, J., & Courage, W. M. G. (2017). Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges. In Life-Cycle of Engineering Systems: Emphasis on Sustainable Civil Infrastructure - 5th International Symposium on Life-Cycle Engineering, IALCCE 2016, 16-19 October 2016, Delft, The Netherlands (blz. 2130-2137). CRC Press/Balkema.