Energy consumption prediction for electric city buses

Similar to electric vehicles for the consumer market, the driving range of battery electric city buses is still a limiting factor for market adoption. Furthermore, this driving range can vary depending on environmental conditions, the number of passengers, and driver behavior and is therefore often uncertain. This results in conservative charging strategies and an increased total cost of ownership of the vehicle. This paper presents a physics based energy consumption prediction model, aimed at electric city buses, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty regarding the energy consumption of the vehicle. The model is derived from first principles and complemented by dedicated measurements of an electric city bus, including dynamometer tests and coastdown measurements. Validation using real-world data shows that the model has the ability to accurately predict the consumed energy for the majority of the analyzed trip, although deviations, probably caused by road slope effects, do occur.