Computer modelling to evaluate the risks of damage to objects exposed to varying indoor climate conditions in the past, present, and future

Within the European project Climate for Culture, we are trying to evaluate the risks for valuable historical objects exposed to changing indoor conditions due to outdoor climate change. We have used building simulation models to calculate the expected indoor climate in historic buildings subjected to a varying outdoor climate. This outdoor climate can be constructed from a historical data file (more than 100 years ago), recent meteorological data (less than 50 year ago) or predicted future data from outdoor climate scenarios (for the next 100 years). The simulated indoor climate is coupled with damage functions to predict the damage risk for objects directly. This paper deals with the modelling approach and shows the potential for damage risk evaluation. The historic, present and future indoor climate conditions in a characteristic historic building have been modelled and the damage risk to historical objects has been compared when the building is virtually placed on 468 different locations in Europe. In this way, the impact of future climate change on the indoor climate conditions in a building and damage risk to its collection can be assessed for areas all over Europe.