TY - JOUR
T1 - Better before worse trajectories in food systems? An investigation of synergies and trade-offs through climate-smart agriculture and system dynamics
AU - Jagustović, Renata
AU - Papachristos, George
AU - Zougmoré, Robert B.
AU - Kotir, Julius H.
AU - Kessler, Aad
AU - Ouédraogo, Mathieu
AU - Ritsema, Coen J.
AU - Dittmer, Kyle M.
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from the CGIAR Fund Donors and through several bilateral funding agreements (the CGIAR Fund Council, Australia-ACIAR, European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development-IFAD, Ireland, New Zealand, Netherlands, Switzerland, USAID, UK, and Thailand). For details, please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. We thank women and men farmers in Doggoh-Jirapa and CCAFS scientists for participating in the systems thinking sessions and the staff of the CSIR-SARI and of the Ministry of Food and Agriculture Department in Jirapa for providing logistical on-site support and translation services during the field data collection.
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - CONTEXT: Food systems face multiple challenges simultaneously: provision to a growing population, adaptation to more extreme and frequent climate change risks, and reduction of their considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Food system interventions and policies give rise to synergies and trade-offs that emerge over time due to the dynamic nature and interconnections of system elements. Analysis of an entire food system is necessary to identify synergies that bring simultaneous benefits and mitigate trade-offs, both short- and long-term. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to inform the sustainable transformation of food systems by identifying short- and long-term synergies and trade-offs in the climate-smart village (CSV) Lawra-Jirapa in northern Ghana under the current practices, technologies, policies, and trends of population growth, extreme events, and climate change impacts. METHODS: We develop a system dynamics model to simulate the food system in the CSV between 2011 and 2060. We apply the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach as a diagnostic tool to the CSV system to reveal the short- and long-term trade-offs and synergies between the CSA goals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results reveal short-term progress towards the goal of increased productivity and income, with trade-offs in the goals of GHG removal, climate adaptation, and resilience. In the long term, post-2035, current agriculture practices, technologies, and policies inside and outside the CSV boundaries result in trade-offs across all three CSA goals, and progress made towards these goals is reversed. The CSV system behaviour, thus, exhibits a “better before worse” pattern. SIGNIFICANCE: The analysis demonstrates an approach, which considers simultaneously all three CSA goals, to identify synergies and mitigate trade-offs in an entire food system. The findings suggest that understanding the dynamics of food systems is a precursor to their sustainable transformation. This transformation will entail changes to the food system's goals and structure with equal attention to short- and long-term outcomes.
AB - CONTEXT: Food systems face multiple challenges simultaneously: provision to a growing population, adaptation to more extreme and frequent climate change risks, and reduction of their considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Food system interventions and policies give rise to synergies and trade-offs that emerge over time due to the dynamic nature and interconnections of system elements. Analysis of an entire food system is necessary to identify synergies that bring simultaneous benefits and mitigate trade-offs, both short- and long-term. OBJECTIVE: Our study aims to inform the sustainable transformation of food systems by identifying short- and long-term synergies and trade-offs in the climate-smart village (CSV) Lawra-Jirapa in northern Ghana under the current practices, technologies, policies, and trends of population growth, extreme events, and climate change impacts. METHODS: We develop a system dynamics model to simulate the food system in the CSV between 2011 and 2060. We apply the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach as a diagnostic tool to the CSV system to reveal the short- and long-term trade-offs and synergies between the CSA goals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulation results reveal short-term progress towards the goal of increased productivity and income, with trade-offs in the goals of GHG removal, climate adaptation, and resilience. In the long term, post-2035, current agriculture practices, technologies, and policies inside and outside the CSV boundaries result in trade-offs across all three CSA goals, and progress made towards these goals is reversed. The CSV system behaviour, thus, exhibits a “better before worse” pattern. SIGNIFICANCE: The analysis demonstrates an approach, which considers simultaneously all three CSA goals, to identify synergies and mitigate trade-offs in an entire food system. The findings suggest that understanding the dynamics of food systems is a precursor to their sustainable transformation. This transformation will entail changes to the food system's goals and structure with equal attention to short- and long-term outcomes.
KW - Climate change
KW - Food security
KW - Smallholder agriculture
KW - System dynamics modelling
KW - Systems thinking
KW - West Africa
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85104350240&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103131
DO - 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103131
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85104350240
SN - 0308-521X
VL - 190
JO - Agricultural Systems
JF - Agricultural Systems
M1 - 103131
ER -
