Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities

F.P.A. Coolen, M.J. Newby

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The Bayesian framework for statistical inference offers the possibility of taking expert opinions into account, and is therefore attractive in practical problems concerning reliability of technical systems. Probability is the only language in which uncertainty can be consistently expressed, and this requires the use of prior distributions for reporting expert opinions. In this paper an extension of the standard Bayesian approach based on the theory of imprecise probabilities and intervals of measures is developed. It is shown that this is necessary to take the nature of experts knowledge into account. The application of this approach in reliability theory is outlined. The concept of imprecise probabilities allows us to accept a range of possible probabilities from an expert for events of interest and thus makes the elicitation of prior information simpler and clearer. The method also provides a consistent way for combining the opinions of several experts.
Originele taal-2Engels
Plaats van productieEindhoven
UitgeverijTechnische Universiteit Eindhoven
Aantal pagina's23
StatusGepubliceerd - 1992

Publicatie series

NaamMemorandum COSOR
Volume9250
ISSN van geprinte versie0926-4493

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Coolen, F. P. A., & Newby, M. J. (1992). Bayesian reliability analysis with imprecise prior probabilities. (Memorandum COSOR; Vol. 9250). Eindhoven: Technische Universiteit Eindhoven.