A Paris Agreement Compliant Definition for “Abated Fossil Fuels”

COP27 in Egypt, 2022, brought the possibility of a commitment to phase out “unabated” fossil fuels, and recent UNFCCC climate negotiations in Bonn, June 2023, have demonstrated this will require that “abated” will need to be carefully and transparently defined to be consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. Recent literature and the IPCC AR6 WGIII scenario database indicate the role of fossil fuels in future net-zero energy and industrial systems. There needs to be a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) on the remaining fossil fuels, and minimal use of unabated fossil fuels only where CCS is not possible. Upstream fugitive emissions of methane from coal, oil and gas extraction must also be reduced by 50-80% or more from current levels. Stricter requirements for systems compatible with the 1.5°C limit include all new and retrofit CO2 emitters employing 90-95%+ capture rates starting in the late 2020s and early 2030s. This is not practically feasible for most mobile, dispersed, and smaller volume emitters, which will require alternative mitigation measures. We elaborate on the standards required for abated fossil fuels and reflect as to whether they can be credibly met in the near term.