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Persoonlijk profiel

Research profile

Mathematical Statistics is a subfield of statistics where mathematical tools are used to design and study statistical procedures. Within Mathematical Statistics, Paulo’s research focuses on non-parametric (high- or infinite dimensional) models. Such large models are useful to avoid having to make potentially restrictive assumptions. Paulo work mainly with three different types of approaches: penalised estimation (used to reconstruct complex signals from observations), recursive estimation (a tool for online learning), and Bayesian estimation (a powerful tool for statistical learning that allows expert knowledge to be incorporated into the inference in a natural way). 

Currently Paulo focuses on the use of these techniques in medical applications, working jointly with researchers at Philips and other departments of the TU/eHe is also involved with the SMM research program of the Data Science Center Eindhoven (DSC/e) and does external consulting work.

Academic background

Paulo Serra obtained Licenciatura in Applied Mathematics at New University of Lisbon, Portugal, followed by an MSc from Utrecht University, and a PhD from the Eindhoven University of TechnologyHe has been a postdoc at the Korteweg-de Vries Institute, of the University of Amsterdam. Before that, he spent two years as a postdoc at the Institute for Mathematical Stochastics of the University of Göttingen, in Germany. Earlier, he was a junior researcher for a year at CA3 group at UNINOVA, in Portugal, working on project NOMDIS developed for ESA/ESOC. Paulo has contributed to several publications, book chapters, and conference proceedings. Since 2016 Paulo has been an Assistant Professor at the Stochastics group of the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science at Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e).

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Intensity Function Rekenkunde
Time-varying Parameters Rekenkunde
Time series Rekenkunde
Knot Rekenkunde
Inhomogeneous Poisson Process Rekenkunde
Conditional Quantiles Rekenkunde
Recursive Estimation Rekenkunde
Non-homogeneous Poisson Process Rekenkunde

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Onderzoeksoutput 2006 2020

Dimension estimation using random connection models

Serra, P. & Mandjes, M. R. H., nov 2017, In : Journal of Machine Learning Research. 18, 35 blz., 138.

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

Poisson Model
Dimensionality Reduction
Adjacency Matrix
3 Citaties (Scopus)
75 Downloads (Pure)

Adaptive empirical Bayesian smoothing splines

Serra, P. & Krivobokova, T., 2016, In : Bayesian Analysis. 12, 1, blz. 219-238 19 blz.

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

Open Access
Smoothing Splines
Smoothing Parameter
Empirical Bayes Method
Marginal Likelihood
Regression Function

Estimation of local degree distributions via local weighted averaging and Monte Carlo cross-validation

Serra, P. & Mandjes, M., apr 2020, In : Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 144, 21 blz., 106886.

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

Heterogeneous networks
Degree Distribution
42 Downloads (Pure)
Open Access
Replacement Policy
Railroad tracks
Optimal Policy
1 Citaat (Scopus)

Recursive tracking algorithm for a predictable time-varying parameter of a time series

de Andrade Serra, P. J. & Belitser, E. N., 2015, In : Mathematical Methods of Statistics. 24, 4, blz. 243-265 22 blz.

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

Time-varying Parameters
Time series
Stochastic Approximation
Stochastic Algorithms
Recursive Algorithm


Probability and statistics

1/09/13 → …


Programming and modelling

1/09/12 → …


Wiskundig modelleren

1/09/13 → …



Analysis of a sold candy time series with the envelope based approach and Box-Jenkins models

Auteur: van den Berkmortel, M. P., 7 aug 2018

Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & Rijpkema, J. (Afstudeerdocent 2)

Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


Estimation of the global maximiser of noisy functions

Auteur: Omar, F. M., 17 mei 2019

Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1)

Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


Forensic statistics: the decision making process in court from a mathematical point of view

Auteur: Pasch, E., 12 jul 2019

Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & Kapodistria, S. (Afstudeerdocent 2)

Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


Regression models on bivariate count data in an exceptional model mining context

Auteur: Raaijmakers, B. A., 31 aug 2017

Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & Duivesteijn, W. (Afstudeerdocent 2)

Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


Review of discount rates for the valuation of pension liabilities

Auteur: Theeuwes, I., 28 mei 2018

Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & de Bock, H. (Externe persoon) (Externe coach)

Scriptie/masterproef: Master