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Persoonlijk profiel

Research profile

Mathematical Statistics is a subfield of statistics where mathematical tools are used to design and study statistical procedures. Within Mathematical Statistics, Paulo’s research focuses on non-parametric (high- or infinite dimensional) models. Such large models are useful to avoid having to make potentially restrictive assumptions. Paulo work mainly with three different types of approaches: penalised estimation (used to reconstruct complex signals from observations), recursive estimation (a tool for online learning), and Bayesian estimation (a powerful tool for statistical learning that allows expert knowledge to be incorporated into the inference in a natural way). 

Currently Paulo focuses on the use of these techniques in medical applications, working jointly with researchers at Philips and other departments of the TU/eHe is also involved with the SMM research program of the Data Science Center Eindhoven (DSC/e) and does external consulting work.

Academic background

Paulo Serra obtained Licenciatura in Applied Mathematics at New University of Lisbon, Portugal, followed by an MSc from Utrecht University, and a PhD from the Eindhoven University of TechnologyHe has been a postdoc at the Korteweg-de Vries Institute, of the University of Amsterdam. Before that, he spent two years as a postdoc at the Institute for Mathematical Stochastics of the University of Göttingen, in Germany. Earlier, he was a junior researcher for a year at CA3 group at UNINOVA, in Portugal, working on project NOMDIS developed for ESA/ESOC. Paulo has contributed to several publications, book chapters, and conference proceedings. Since 2016 Paulo has been an Assistant Professor at the Stochastics group of the Department of Mathematics and Computer Science at Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e).

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Dimension estimation using random connection models

Serra, P. & Mandjes, M. R. H., nov 2017, In : Journal of Machine Learning Research. 18, 35 blz., 138.

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

  • Adaptive empirical Bayesian smoothing splines

    Serra, P. & Krivobokova, T., 2016, In : Bayesian Analysis. 12, 1, blz. 219-238 19 blz.

    Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

    Open Access
  • 3 Citaten (Scopus)
    88 Downloads (Pure)

    Estimation of local degree distributions via local weighted averaging and Monte Carlo cross-validation

    Serra, P. & Mandjes, M., apr 2020, In : Computational Statistics and Data Analysis. 144, 21 blz., 106886.

    Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

  • Open Access
  • 51 Downloads (Pure)

    Recursive tracking algorithm for a predictable time-varying parameter of a time series

    de Andrade Serra, P. J. & Belitser, E. N., 2015, In : Mathematical Methods of Statistics. 24, 4, blz. 243-265 22 blz.

    Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschriftTijdschriftartikelAcademicpeer review

  • 1 Citaat (Scopus)
    1 Downloads (Pure)


    Programming and modelling

    1/09/12 → …


    Wiskundig modelleren

    1/09/13 → …



    Analysis of a sold candy time series with the envelope based approach and Box-Jenkins models

    Auteur: van den Berkmortel, M. P., 7 aug 2018

    Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & Rijpkema, J. (Afstudeerdocent 2)

    Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


    Estimation of the global maximiser of noisy functions

    Auteur: Omar, F. M., 17 mei 2019

    Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1)

    Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


    Forensic statistics: the decision making process in court from a mathematical point of view

    Auteur: Pasch, E., 12 jul 2019

    Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & Kapodistria, S. (Afstudeerdocent 2)

    Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


    Regression models on bivariate count data in an exceptional model mining context

    Auteur: Raaijmakers, B. A., 31 aug 2017

    Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & Duivesteijn, W. (Afstudeerdocent 2)

    Scriptie/masterproef: Bachelor


    Review of discount rates for the valuation of pension liabilities

    Auteur: Theeuwes, I., 28 mei 2018

    Begeleider: De Andrade Serra, P. (Afstudeerdocent 1) & de Bock, H. (Externe persoon) (Externe coach)

    Scriptie/masterproef: Master