Uncertainty in model‐based treatment decision support: applied to aortic valve stenosis

Roel Meiburg (Corresponding author), Wouter Huberts, Marcel C.M. Rutten, Frans N. van de Vosse

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)


Patient outcome in trans-aortic valve implantation (TAVI) therapy partly relies on a patient's haemodynamic properties that cannot be determined from current diagnostic methods alone. In this study, we predict changes in haemodynamic parameters (as a part of patient outcome) after valve replacement treatment in aortic stenosis patients. A framework to incorporate uncertainty in patient-specific model predictions for decision support is presented. A 0D lumped parameter model including the left ventricle, a stenotic valve and systemic circulatory system has been developed, based on models published earlier. The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used to optimize model input parameters to fit measured data pre-intervention. After optimization, the valve treatment is simulated by significantly reducing valve resistance. Uncertain model parameters are then propagated using a polynomial chaos expansion approach. To test the proposed framework, three in silico test cases are developed with clinically feasible measurements. Quality and availability of simulated measured patient data are decreased in each case. The UKF approach is compared to a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) approach, a well-known approach in modelling predictions with uncertainty. Both methods show increased confidence intervals as measurement quality decreases. By considering three in silico test-cases we were able to show that the proposed framework is able to incorporate optimization uncertainty in model predictions and is faster and the MCMC approach, although it is more sensitive to noise in flow measurements. To conclude, this work shows that the proposed framework is ready to be applied to real patient data.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere3388
Number of pages21
JournalInternational Journal for Numerical Methods in Biomedical Engineering
Issue number10
Early online date20 Jul 2020
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2020


Funded via the EurValve project, Horizon 2020 ‐ Societal Challenges, Grant agreement ID: 689617. Funding information

FundersFunder number
Horizon 2020 ‐ Societal Challenges689617


    • Monte Carlo Markov chain
    • aortic stenosis
    • parameter estimation
    • patient specific
    • prediction uncertainty
    • unscented Kalman filter


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