Uncertainty in forecasts of complex rule-based systems of travel demand: Comparative analysis of the Albatross/Feathers model system

S. Rasouli, M Cools, B. Kochan, T.A. Arentze, T. Bellemans, D. Janssens, H.J.P. Timmermans

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Abstract

This paper documents the results of a comparative analysis of model uncertainty of the Albatross/Feathers model system for respectively the Rotterdam region, The Netherlands and Antwerp region, Belgium. The assessment concerned the calculation of the coefficient of variation for the daily distance travelled per person. The calculations are performed both at the aggregated level and the disaggregated level (e.g. disaggregation by certain socio-demographics). Results indicate that model uncertainty differs by socio-demographic groups. Results of a regression analysis also indicate that in both regions uncertainty in daily distance travelled per person is strongly correlated with the inverse square root of the relevant socio-demographic population and the complexity of the classification, measured in terms of the number of possible classes.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 13th International Association of Travel Behavior Research Conference : Toronto, Canada, 15-20 July 2012
Place of PublicationToronto, Canada
PublisherIATBR
Publication statusPublished - 2012

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