Threats of land use to the global diversity of vascular plants

Aim: Land use is a main driver of biodiversity loss worldwide. However, quantifying its effects on global plant diversity remains a challenge due to the limited availability of data on the distributions of vascular plant species and their responses to land use. Here, we estimated the global extinction threat of land use to vascular plant species based on a novel integration of an ecoregion-level species-area model and the relative endemism richness of the ecoregions. Location: Global. Methods: First, we assessed ecoregion-level extinction threats using a countryside species–area relationship model based on responses of local plant richness to land use types and intensities and a high-resolution global land use map. Next, we estimated global species extinction threat by multiplying the relative endemism richness of each ecoregion with the ecoregion-level extinction threats. Results: Our results indicate that 11% of vascular plant species are threatened with global extinction. We found the largest extinction threats in the Neotropic and Palearctic realms, mainly due to cropland of minimal and high intensity, respectively. Main Conclusions: Our novel integration of the countryside species–area relationship and the relative endemism richness allows for the identification of hotspots of global extinction threat, as well as the contribution of specific land use types and intensities to this threat. Our findings inform where the development of measures to protect or restore plant diversity globally are most needed.