The probability outcome correpondence principle : a dispositional view of the interpretation of probability statements

G. Keren, K.H. Teigen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article presents a framework for lay people's internal representations of probabilities, which supposedly reflect the strength of underlying dispositions, or propensities, associated with the predicted event. From this framework, we derive the probability-outcome correspondence principle, which asserts that strong dispositions should lead to (1) strong (forceful) and (2) immediate outcomes and, hence, be characterized by high probabilities. In contrast, weak dispositions lead to (1) weak (fragile) and (2) delayed outcomes and are thus associated with low probabilities. We describe six experiments designed to test the correspondence principle. In the final discussion, we examine the implications of the proposed framework, from both a normative and a descriptive viewpoint.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1010-1021
JournalMemory & Cognition
Volume29
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001

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