The evolution of productivity gaps and specialization patterns

This paper presents an industry-level model of growth and trade, in which evolving specialization patterns are the endogenous result of innovation, international technology spillovers, learning-by-doing and balance of payments-restricted growth. Differences between industries with regard to their share in consumption are shown to reinforce or mitigate the effects of specialization on aggregate productivity convergence patterns, depending on other parameters. The implications of the model are studied by means of simulation analyses for a wide range of parameter configurations.