The energy consumption of passenger vehicles in a transformed mobility system with autonomous, shared and fit-for-purpose electric vehicles in the Netherlands

Aims: This article explores the tank-to-wheel energy consumption of passenger transport at full adoption of fit-for-purpose shared and autonomous electric vehicles. Background: The energy consumption of passenger transport is increasing every year. Electrification of vehicles reduces their energy consumption significantly but is not the only disruptive trend in mobility. Shared fleets and autonomous driving are also expected to have large impacts and lead to fleets with one-person fit-for-purpose vehicles. The energy consumption of passenger transport in such scenarios is rarely discussed and we have not yet seen attempts to quantify it. Objective: The objective of this study is to quantify the tank-to-wheel energy consumption of passenger transport when the vehicle fleet is comprised of shared autonomous and electric fit-for-purpose vehicles and where cheap and accessible mobility leads to significantly increased mobility demand. Methodology: The approach consists of four steps. First, describing the key characteristics of a future mobility system with fit-for-purpose shared autonomous electric vehicles. Second, estimating the vehicle miles traveled in such a scenario. Third, estimating the energy use of the fit-for-purpose vehicles. And last, multiplying the mileages and energy consumptions of the vehicles and scaling the results with the population of the Netherlands. Results: Our findings show that the daily tank-to-wheel energy consumption from Dutch passenger transport in full adoption scenarios of shared autonomous electric vehicles ranges from 700 Wh to 2200 Wh per capita. This implies a reduction of 90% to 70% compared to the current situation. Conclusion: Full adoption of shared autonomous electric vehicles could increase the vehicle-miles-travelled and thus energy use of passenger transport by 30% to 150%. Electrification of vehicles reduces energy consumption by 75%. Autonomous driving has the potential of reducing the energy consumption by up to 40% and implementing one-person fit-for-purpose vehicles by another 50% to 60%. For our case study of the Netherlands, this means that the current 600 TJ/day that is consumed by passenger vehicles will be reduced to about 50 to 150 TJ/day at full adoption of SAEVs.