Abstract
We present an interface for eliciting sets of acceptable gambles on a three-outcome possibility space, discuss an experiment conducted for testing this interface, and present the results of this experiment. Sets of acceptable gambles form a representation for imprecise probabilities that is close to human behavior and eliciting them directly may improve the quality of the resulting uncertainty model. The experiment consisted of a betting competition for the 2014 FIFA World Cup: For each match bets were assigned based on the sets of acceptable gambles elicited from the participants. A new algorithm was designed for generating fair bets for assignment. Participant feedback indicated that improving the usability and transparency of the interface would ease the elicitation procedure. The experiment's results underlined that imprecision is an essential aspect of real-life uncertainty modeling.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications |
| Editors | Alessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani, Inés Couso, Sébastien Destercke |
| Publisher | PMLR |
| Pages | 277-288 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Publication status | Published - 2017 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | 10th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2017 - Lugano, Switzerland Duration: 10 Jul 2017 → 14 Jul 2017 |
Publication series
| Name | Proceedings of Machine Learning Research |
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| Volume | 62 |
| ISSN (Electronic) | 2640-3498 |
Conference
| Conference | 10th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2017 |
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| Country/Territory | Switzerland |
| City | Lugano |
| Period | 10/07/17 → 14/07/17 |
Funding
This work is part of the Safe Statistics project at the CWI financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). Erik Quaeghebeur was an ERCIM “Alain Bensoussan” Fellow, receiving funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 246016. Tom Sterkenburg is also affiliated with the Faculty of Philosophy of the University of Groningen. Teresa Piovesan is partially funded by the European Project SIQS.
Keywords
- Acceptability
- Desirability
- Elicitation
- Experiment
- Fair bet
- Gamble
- User interface