The CWI World Cup competition: Eliciting sets of acceptable gambles

Erik Quaeghebeur, Chris Wesseling, Emma Beauxis-Aussalet, Teresa Piovesan, Tom Sterkenburg

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

We present an interface for eliciting sets of acceptable gambles on a three-outcome possibility space, discuss an experiment conducted for testing this interface, and present the results of this experiment. Sets of acceptable gambles form a representation for imprecise probabilities that is close to human behavior and eliciting them directly may improve the quality of the resulting uncertainty model. The experiment consisted of a betting competition for the 2014 FIFA World Cup: For each match bets were assigned based on the sets of acceptable gambles elicited from the participants. A new algorithm was designed for generating fair bets for assignment. Participant feedback indicated that improving the usability and transparency of the interface would ease the elicitation procedure. The experiment's results underlined that imprecision is an essential aspect of real-life uncertainty modeling.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications
EditorsAlessandro Antonucci, Giorgio Corani, Inés Couso, Sébastien Destercke
PublisherPMLR
Pages277-288
Number of pages12
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event10th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2017 - Lugano, Switzerland
Duration: 10 Jul 201714 Jul 2017

Publication series

NameProceedings of Machine Learning Research
Volume62
ISSN (Electronic)2640-3498

Conference

Conference10th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, ISIPTA 2017
CountrySwitzerland
CityLugano
Period10/07/1714/07/17

Keywords

  • Acceptability
  • Desirability
  • Elicitation
  • Experiment
  • Fair bet
  • Gamble
  • User interface

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