The arrival of the new

L. Marengo, P. Zeppini

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

10 Citations (Scopus)
73 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In this work we present a number of urn models in which, contrary to standard Polya urns, the number of competing alternatives is not given from the outset but may increase with the arrival of innovations. We begin by describing a variant of Polya urns, first introduced by Fred Hoppe, in which balls of previously non existing colours are added with some (declining) probability. We then propose new variants in which the probability of the arrival on new colours is itself subject to adaptive change depending on the success of past innovations. We numerically simulate different specifications of these urns with adaptively changing mutation rate and show that they can account for complex patterns of evolution in which periods of exploration with clusters of innovations are followed by periods in which the dynamics of the system is driven by selection among a stable set of alternatives.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationPisa, Italy
PublisherSant'Anna School of Advanced Studies
Number of pages22
Publication statusPublished - 2014

Publication series

NameLEM Working Paper Series
Volume2014/04

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Cite this

Marengo, L., & Zeppini, P. (2014). The arrival of the new. (LEM Working Paper Series; Vol. 2014/04). Pisa, Italy: Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies.
Marengo, L. ; Zeppini, P. / The arrival of the new. Pisa, Italy : Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, 2014. 22 p. (LEM Working Paper Series).
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Marengo, L & Zeppini, P 2014, The arrival of the new. LEM Working Paper Series, vol. 2014/04, Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

The arrival of the new. / Marengo, L.; Zeppini, P.

Pisa, Italy : Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, 2014. 22 p. (LEM Working Paper Series; Vol. 2014/04).

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

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Marengo L, Zeppini P. The arrival of the new. Pisa, Italy: Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, 2014. 22 p. (LEM Working Paper Series).