Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes

W. Kager; I. Kryven; K.W. Myerscough; T.M. Opstal, van; T. Rot

Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes

W. Kager, I. Kryven, K.W. Myerscough, T.M. Opstal, van, T. Rot

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic

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Abstract

The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011
Editors	B. Planque, S. Bhulai, J. Hulshof, W. Kager, T. Rot
Place of Publication	Amsterdam
Publisher	Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Pages	133-148
Publication status	Published - 2011
Event	79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands - Amsterdam, Netherlands Duration: 24 Jan 2011 → 28 Jan 2011

Conference

Conference	79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Country/Territory	Netherlands
City	Amsterdam
Period	24/01/11 → 28/01/11
Other	European Study Group with Industry

Cite this

Kager, W., Kryven, I., Myerscough, K. W., Opstal, van, T. M., & Rot, T. (2011). Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. In B. Planque, S. Bhulai, J. Hulshof, W. Kager, & T. Rot (Eds.), Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011 (pp. 133-148). Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

Kager, W. ; Kryven, I. ; Myerscough, K.W. et al. / Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. editor / B. Planque ; S. Bhulai ; J. Hulshof ; W. Kager ; T. Rot. Amsterdam : Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 2011. pp. 133-148

@inproceedings{7bbb9cfbb89d418b8379c47e5251de69,

title = "Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes",

abstract = "The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.",

author = "W. Kager and I. Kryven and K.W. Myerscough and \{Opstal, van\}, T.M. and T. Rot",

year = "2011",

language = "English",

pages = "133--148",

editor = "B. Planque and S. Bhulai and J. Hulshof and W. Kager and T. Rot",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011",

publisher = "Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam",

note = "79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands ; Conference date: 24-01-2011 Through 28-01-2011",

}

Kager, W, Kryven, I, Myerscough, KW, Opstal, van, TM & Rot, T 2011, Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. in B Planque, S Bhulai, J Hulshof, W Kager & T Rot (eds), Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, pp. 133-148, 79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 24/01/11.

Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. / Kager, W.; Kryven, I.; Myerscough, K.W. et al.
Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. ed. / B. Planque; S. Bhulai; J. Hulshof; W. Kager; T. Rot. Amsterdam: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 2011. p. 133-148.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic

TY - GEN

T1 - Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes

AU - Kager, W.

AU - Kryven, I.

AU - Myerscough, K.W.

AU - Opstal, van, T.M.

AU - Rot, T.

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.

AB - The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 133

EP - 148

BT - Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011

A2 - Planque, B.

A2 - Bhulai, S.

A2 - Hulshof, J.

A2 - Kager, W.

A2 - Rot, T.

PB - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

CY - Amsterdam

T2 - 79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Y2 - 24 January 2011 through 28 January 2011

ER -

Kager W, Kryven I, Myerscough KW, Opstal, van TM, Rot T. Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. In Planque B, Bhulai S, Hulshof J, Kager W, Rot T, editors, Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. Amsterdam: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. 2011. p. 133-148

Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes

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