Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes

W. Kager, I. Kryven, K.W. Myerscough, T.M. Opstal, van, T. Rot

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademic

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Abstract

The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011
EditorsB. Planque, S. Bhulai, J. Hulshof, W. Kager, T. Rot
Place of PublicationAmsterdam
PublisherVU University
Pages133-148
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Event79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 24 Jan 201128 Jan 2011

Conference

Conference79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period24/01/1128/01/11
OtherEuropean Study Group with Industry

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crashes
impact velocity
Netherlands
sensitivity analysis
collisions

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Kager, W., Kryven, I., Myerscough, K. W., Opstal, van, T. M., & Rot, T. (2011). Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. In B. Planque, S. Bhulai, J. Hulshof, W. Kager, & T. Rot (Eds.), Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011 (pp. 133-148). Amsterdam: VU University.
Kager, W. ; Kryven, I. ; Myerscough, K.W. ; Opstal, van, T.M. ; Rot, T. / Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. editor / B. Planque ; S. Bhulai ; J. Hulshof ; W. Kager ; T. Rot. Amsterdam : VU University, 2011. pp. 133-148
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title = "Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes",
abstract = "The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.",
author = "W. Kager and I. Kryven and K.W. Myerscough and {Opstal, van}, T.M. and T. Rot",
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pages = "133--148",
editor = "B. Planque and S. Bhulai and J. Hulshof and W. Kager and T. Rot",
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Kager, W, Kryven, I, Myerscough, KW, Opstal, van, TM & Rot, T 2011, Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. in B Planque, S Bhulai, J Hulshof, W Kager & T Rot (eds), Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. VU University, Amsterdam, pp. 133-148, 79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 24/01/11.

Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. / Kager, W.; Kryven, I.; Myerscough, K.W.; Opstal, van, T.M.; Rot, T.

Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. ed. / B. Planque; S. Bhulai; J. Hulshof; W. Kager; T. Rot. Amsterdam : VU University, 2011. p. 133-148.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademic

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N2 - The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.

AB - The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.

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BT - Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011

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Kager W, Kryven I, Myerscough KW, Opstal, van TM, Rot T. Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes. In Planque B, Bhulai S, Hulshof J, Kager W, Rot T, editors, Proceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011. Amsterdam: VU University. 2011. p. 133-148