Statistical modelling of pre-impact velocities in car crashes

W. Kager, I. Kryven, K.W. Myerscough, T.M. Opstal, van, T. Rot

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademic

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    Abstract

    The law wants to determine if any party involved in a car crash is guilty. The Dutch court invokes the expertise of the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) to answer this question. We discuss the present method of the NFI to determine probabilities on pre-impact car velocities, given the evidence from the crash scene. A disadvantage of this method is that it requires a prior distribution on the velocities of the cars involved in the crash. We suggest a different approach, that of statistical significance testing, which can be carried out without a prior. We explain this method, and apply it to a toy model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed on a simple two-car collision model.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings of the Seventy-ninth European Study Group with Industry : VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 24-28 January, 2011
    EditorsB. Planque, S. Bhulai, J. Hulshof, W. Kager, T. Rot
    Place of PublicationAmsterdam
    PublisherVU University
    Pages133-148
    Publication statusPublished - 2011
    Event79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands - Amsterdam, Netherlands
    Duration: 24 Jan 201128 Jan 2011

    Conference

    Conference79th European Study Group with Industry, January 24-28, 2011, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
    CountryNetherlands
    CityAmsterdam
    Period24/01/1128/01/11
    OtherEuropean Study Group with Industry

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