Statistical modelling of load profiles incorporating correlations using Copula

Raoul Bernards, Johan Morren, Han Slootweg

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The growth in stochastic local renewable generation and the increase in new high peak power loads such as electric vehicles and heat pumps warrants the use of more detailed load models to properly assess grid adequacy. In this paper a method is proposed to develop load and generation models based on statistical analyses of measurement data using Gaussian Mixture Models and Copula functions. The two stage approach enables separate modelling of the marginal distributions and correlation structures and is shown to be able to provide a good representation of the statistical behaviour of measured electric household load. The fitted models are then used to stochastically generate load profiles and assess the peak shaving potential and required size of an energy storage unit. Taking into account the correlations is shown to be important for a proper representation of the profiles and may have a substantial effect on the results of the analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2017 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2017 - Proceedings
Place of PublicationPiscataway
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
Volume2018-January
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5386-1953-7
ISBN (Print)978-1-5386-1954-4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Sep 2017
Event2017 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT-Europe 2017) - Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy
Duration: 26 Sep 201729 Sep 2017
Conference number: 7
http://sites.ieee.org/isgt-europe-2017/

Conference

Conference2017 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT-Europe 2017)
Abbreviated titleISGT Europe 2017
CountryItaly
CityTorino
Period26/09/1729/09/17
Internet address

Keywords

  • Copula
  • Gaussian mixture model
  • Load modelling
  • Smart grid planning
  • Statistical learning

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