Spatial-temporal evolution analysis of multi-scenario land use and ecosystem services base on PLUS-Invest model: A case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Against the backdrop of intensified global warming and food security challenges, land use, as a critical link between human activities and ecosystems, has emerged as a core issue in addressing the contradictions of sustainable development. By selecting habitat quality and carbon storage as key indicators of ecosystem services, this study highlighted the roles of supporting and regulating services in regional land use change and ecological effects research. Based on land use remote sensing data, the study integrated carbon storage density and habitat quality coefficient data to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of land use patterns and the response mechanisms between carbon storage and habitat quality during the study period. Quantitative methods such as land use dynamics, change intensity index, and transition matrix were employed to describe the transformation characteristics of major land types, including cropland, impervious, forest, and grassland. The InVEST model was utilized to estimate carbon storage and habitat quality for different land types, thereby establishing the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between land use and ecosystem services. To scientifically predict future land use scenarios, four scenario models were constructed: natural development (S1), farmland protection (S2), economic development (S3), and sustainable development (S4). The PLUS model was applied to simulate land use patterns for the year 2030. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the impervious in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region expanded from 21,747.22 km² to 32,527.75 km², while the forest increased steadily from 47,417.27 km² to 53,300.53 km². In contrast, the cropland decreased by 11,718.05 km², and the grassland shrank to 32,019.04 km². Additionally, the water and unused land areas exhibited an overall downward trend. (2) The spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage was significant. During the study period, forest carbon storage increased from 8.28 × 10⁸ tons to 9.31 × 10⁸ tons. Conversely, the carbon storage of cropland and grassland showed a declining trend, decreasing from 3.80 × 10⁸ tons and 3.17 × 10⁸ tons to 3.38 × 10⁸ tons and 2.78 × 10⁸ tons, respectively. The carbon storage of impervious increased from 0.27 × 10⁸ tons to 0.40 × 10⁸ tons. Habitat quality continued to deteriorate, with the average habitat quality index declining from 0.4850 in 2000 to 0.4631 in 2020, exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern characterized by "high values in the northwest and low values in the central and eastern regions". The urban center areas exhibited the lowest habitat quality due to intensive human activities. (3) In S2, by restricting the expansion of impervious (reduced to 26,325.57 km²), the cropland increased to 101,974.76 km², carbon storage reached 3.65 × 10⁸ tons, the habitat quality index rose to 0.4843, and the ecological protection effect was significant. In contrast, in S3, the impervious expanded to 36,767.59 km², leading to a decrease in carbon storage for cropland and grassland to 3.24 × 10⁸ tons and 2.56 × 10⁸ tons, respectively. The habitat quality index dropped to 0.4641, and ecosystem services significantly declined. Under S1 and S4, carbon storage remained similar to levels observed in 2020. However, S4 demonstrated slightly better performance than S1 in terms of grassland carbon storage (2.77 × 10⁸ tons) and habitat quality (0.4752) due to enhanced ecological land protection measures. This study provides model support and decision-making references for optimizing land use, achieving carbon neutrality goals, and protecting biodiversity in the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Furthermore, the research content and methods can be extended to ecosystem service management in other urbanized regions.