Simulation-based production planning for engineer-to-order systems with random yield

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

We consider an engineer-to-order production system with unknown yield. We model the yield as a random variable which represents the percentage output obtained from one unit of production quantity. We develop a beta-regression model in which the mean value of the yield depends on the unique attributes of the engineer-to-order product. Assuming that the beta-regression parameters are unknown by the decision maker, we investigate the problem of identifying the optimal production quantity. Adopting a Bayesian approach for modeling the uncertainty in the beta-regression parameters, we use simulation to approximate the posterior distributions of these parameters. We further quantify the increase in the expected cost due to the so-called input uncertainty as a function of the size of the historical data set, the product attributes, and economic parameters. We also introduce a sampling-based algorithm that reduces the average increase in the expected cost due to input uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2017 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2017
Place of PublicationPiscataway
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages3275-3286
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9781538634288
ISBN (Print)9781538634271
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Jan 2018
Event2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 2017) - Las Vegas, United States
Duration: 3 Dec 20176 Dec 2017
http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/wsc2017/

Conference

Conference2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 2017)
Abbreviated titleWSC 2017
CountryUnited States
CityLas Vegas
Period3/12/176/12/17
Internet address

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Production Planning
Engineers
Planning
Uncertainty
Simulation
Regression
Attribute
Random variables
Unknown
Costs
Historical Data
Production Systems
Posterior distribution
Bayesian Approach
Mean Value
Sampling
Percentage
Regression Model
Economics
Quantify

Cite this

Akcay, A., & Martagan, T. (2018). Simulation-based production planning for engineer-to-order systems with random yield. In 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2017 (pp. 3275-3286). Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8248045
Akcay, Alp ; Martagan, Tugce. / Simulation-based production planning for engineer-to-order systems with random yield. 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2017. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2018. pp. 3275-3286
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Akcay, A & Martagan, T 2018, Simulation-based production planning for engineer-to-order systems with random yield. in 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, pp. 3275-3286, 2017 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 2017), Las Vegas, United States, 3/12/17. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8248045

Simulation-based production planning for engineer-to-order systems with random yield. / Akcay, Alp; Martagan, Tugce.

2017 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2017. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2018. p. 3275-3286.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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Akcay A, Martagan T. Simulation-based production planning for engineer-to-order systems with random yield. In 2017 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2017. Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2018. p. 3275-3286 https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2017.8248045