Simulating dynamical evolution of citizen participation leveraging agent-based modeling: Experiences from nature-based solutions in China

Incorporating citizen engagement in scaling up nature-based solutions (NbS) is a burgeoning and promising approach to foster localized, decentralized, and bottom-up project management strategies. While scholars have expressed heightened interest in citizen participation, there is a prominent lack of exploration into the dynamic and evolutionary nature of participatory behaviors. Reinforced by the theory of planned behavior and scale-free network, an agent-based simulation was constructed to simulate the citizens' behavioral changes and evolutions in engaging NbS projects under different conditions. The simulation results suggest that as information is disseminated and opinions are exchanged, the proportion of residents exhibiting silence and unwillingness to participate experiences a fluctuating increase, while the proportion of residents with willingness to participate undergoes a fluctuating decrease. Ultimately, the proportions of the three groups tend to stabilize. Relying predominantly on the formal government-led network has the potential to enhance neighborhood participation rates, whereas an overreliance on informal networks rooted in social ties and information dissemination can have notable detrimental effects on participation. This study offers insights into the evolutionary process of citizen participation in NbS projects, thereby contributing valuable recommendations for promoting the sustainable development of environmental projects.