Seasonality and Development Trends of Seasonal Lifestyle Tourism on Tropical Islands: A Case Study of Hainan, China

The rise in seasonal lifestyle tourism, characterized by winter-escape health and wellness stays and long-term leisure residence, has intensified peak–off-peak imbalances and pressures on the allocation of tourism service supply in tropical island destinations. However, existing research lacks a systematic comparison of seasonal fluctuations and long-term evolution for this subgroup at the city/county level. Therefore, this study aims to characterize the seasonal pattern, long-term trend features, and typological differentiation of seasonal lifestyle tourism at the county level, and to compare differences across types. Using monthly data on seasonal lifestyle tourism for 18 cities/counties in Hainan from 2021 to 2024, we apply TRAMO/SEATS decomposition to identify seasonal structures and measure seasonal amplitude and employ the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter to extract trend components and determine their directions of change. We further construct five development types by integrating trend categories and changes in seasonal amplitude and test between-type differences using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Results show that Hainan exhibits a stable “winter–spring peak and summer–autumn trough” pattern (peaks concentrated in January–March and December, with the off-season typically spanning May–October), with strong seasonality and pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The four-year mean seasonal range at the county level is 215.01, with high values clustered in southern Hainan; Haikou remains relatively low, while Wenchang shows an upward trend. Long-term trends are clearly differentiated: 13 counties show sustained growth, 2 show decline, and 3 display a U-shaped recovery (decline followed by rebound). Growth rates also vary substantially, with Qionghai increasing at roughly 27 times the rate of Qiongzhong. Integrating seasonal and trend characteristics yields five types, of which the Robust Development type accounts for the largest share (50%). Between-type differences are mainly reflected in tourism service supply capacity: the number of star-rated hotels (p = 0.033, η2 = 0.530) and overnight visitors (p = 0.004, η2 = 0.676) differ significantly across types, whereas differences in natural-environment conditions are not significant. This study provides a scientific basis for zoning management and optimizing low-season strategies in Hainan.