Robustness analysis of Bitcoin confirmation times

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Bitcoin payments require a random amount of time to get confirmed (i.e. to be grouped by the miners into a block and to be added to the Bitcoin blockchain). In [8, 11], the authors propose the modelling of the Bitcoin confirmation time by the so-called time to ruin of the Cramer-Lundberg (CL) model. This provides off-the-shelf results directly aimed at predicting the confirmation time. However, analyses suggest that the data may not fully conform with the CL model assumptions. In this manuscript, we show by means of a robustness analysis that the time to ruin of a CL model is near insensitive to small changes in the model assumptions and illustrate that the proposed heuristic model can be used to accurately predict the confirmation times even when the data deviate (to a small degree) from the model assumptions.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)20-23
Number of pages4
JournalPerformance Evaluation Review
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 19 May 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The work of RG and SK is supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through Gravitation-grant NETWORKS-024.002.003.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Copyright is held by the owner/author(s).


  • bitcoin
  • confirmation time
  • cramer-lundberg model
  • robustness analysis
  • time to ruin


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