Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters

Alp Akcay; Tugce Martagan; Canan G. Corlu

doi:10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314

Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters

Alp Akcay, Tugce Martagan, Canan G. Corlu

Operations Planning Accounting & Control

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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Abstract

We consider a pharmaceutical supply chain where the manufacturer sources a customized product with unique attributes from a set of unreliable suppliers. We model the likelihood of a supplier to successfully deliver the product via Bayesian logistic regression and use simulation to obtain the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters of this model. We study the role of so-called input-model uncertainty in estimating the likelihood of the supply failure, which is the probability that none of the suppliers in a given supplier portfolio can successfully deliver the product. We investigate how the input-model uncertainty changes with respect to the characteristics of the historical data on the past realizations of the supplier performances and the product attributes.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference
Subtitle of host publication	Simulation for a Noble Cause
Editors	M. Rabe, A.A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, B. Johansson
Place of Publication	Piscataway
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages	3132-3143
Number of pages	12
ISBN (Electronic)	9781538665725
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314
Publication status	Published - 31 Jan 2019
Event	2018 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2018 - Gothenburg, Sweden Duration: 9 Dec 2018 → 12 Dec 2018

Conference

Conference	2018 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2018
Abbreviated title	WSC 2018
Country/Territory	Sweden
City	Gothenburg
Period	9/12/18 → 12/12/18

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10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314

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Akcay, A., Martagan, T., & Corlu, C. G. (2019). Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. In M. Rabe, A. A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, & B. Johansson (Eds.), WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause (pp. 3132-3143). [8632314] Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314

Akcay, Alp ; Martagan, Tugce ; Corlu, Canan G. / Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause. editor / M. Rabe ; A.A. Juan ; N. Mustafee ; A. Skoogh ; S. Jain ; B. Johansson. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2019. pp. 3132-3143

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abstract = "We consider a pharmaceutical supply chain where the manufacturer sources a customized product with unique attributes from a set of unreliable suppliers. We model the likelihood of a supplier to successfully deliver the product via Bayesian logistic regression and use simulation to obtain the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters of this model. We study the role of so-called input-model uncertainty in estimating the likelihood of the supply failure, which is the probability that none of the suppliers in a given supplier portfolio can successfully deliver the product. We investigate how the input-model uncertainty changes with respect to the characteristics of the historical data on the past realizations of the supplier performances and the product attributes.",

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Akcay, A , Martagan, T & Corlu, CG 2019, Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. in M Rabe, AA Juan, N Mustafee, A Skoogh, S Jain & B Johansson (eds), WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause., 8632314, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, pp. 3132-3143, 2018 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2018, Gothenburg, Sweden, 9/12/18. https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314

Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. / Akcay, Alp ; Martagan, Tugce; Corlu, Canan G.

WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause. ed. / M. Rabe; A.A. Juan; N. Mustafee; A. Skoogh; S. Jain; B. Johansson. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2019. p. 3132-3143 8632314.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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N2 - We consider a pharmaceutical supply chain where the manufacturer sources a customized product with unique attributes from a set of unreliable suppliers. We model the likelihood of a supplier to successfully deliver the product via Bayesian logistic regression and use simulation to obtain the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters of this model. We study the role of so-called input-model uncertainty in estimating the likelihood of the supply failure, which is the probability that none of the suppliers in a given supplier portfolio can successfully deliver the product. We investigate how the input-model uncertainty changes with respect to the characteristics of the historical data on the past realizations of the supplier performances and the product attributes.

AB - We consider a pharmaceutical supply chain where the manufacturer sources a customized product with unique attributes from a set of unreliable suppliers. We model the likelihood of a supplier to successfully deliver the product via Bayesian logistic regression and use simulation to obtain the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters of this model. We study the role of so-called input-model uncertainty in estimating the likelihood of the supply failure, which is the probability that none of the suppliers in a given supplier portfolio can successfully deliver the product. We investigate how the input-model uncertainty changes with respect to the characteristics of the historical data on the past realizations of the supplier performances and the product attributes.

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Akcay A , Martagan T, Corlu CG. Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. In Rabe M, Juan AA, Mustafee N, Skoogh A, Jain S, Johansson B, editors, WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause. Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2019. p. 3132-3143. 8632314 doi: 10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314

Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters

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