Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters

Alp Akcay, Tugce Martagan, Canan G. Corlu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

We consider a pharmaceutical supply chain where the manufacturer sources a customized product with unique attributes from a set of unreliable suppliers. We model the likelihood of a supplier to successfully deliver the product via Bayesian logistic regression and use simulation to obtain the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters of this model. We study the role of so-called input-model uncertainty in estimating the likelihood of the supply failure, which is the probability that none of the suppliers in a given supplier portfolio can successfully deliver the product. We investigate how the input-model uncertainty changes with respect to the characteristics of the historical data on the past realizations of the supplier performances and the product attributes.

LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationWSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference
Subtitle of host publicationSimulation for a Noble Cause
EditorsM. Rabe, A.A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, B. Johansson
Place of PublicationPiscataway
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages3132-3143
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9781538665725
DOIs
StatePublished - 31 Jan 2019
Event2018 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2018 - Gothenburg, Sweden
Duration: 9 Dec 201812 Dec 2018

Conference

Conference2018 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2018
Abbreviated titleWSC 2018
CountrySweden
CityGothenburg
Period9/12/1812/12/18

Fingerprint

Unknown Inputs
Pharmaceuticals
Risk Assessment
Supply Chain
Risk assessment
Drug products
Supply chains
Model Uncertainty
Likelihood
Attribute
Historical Data
Logistic Regression
Posterior distribution
Model
Unknown Parameters
Logistics
Simulation
Uncertainty

Cite this

Akcay, A., Martagan, T., & Corlu, C. G. (2019). Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. In M. Rabe, A. A. Juan, N. Mustafee, A. Skoogh, S. Jain, & B. Johansson (Eds.), WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause (pp. 3132-3143). [8632314] Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314
Akcay, Alp ; Martagan, Tugce ; Corlu, Canan G./ Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause. editor / M. Rabe ; A.A. Juan ; N. Mustafee ; A. Skoogh ; S. Jain ; B. Johansson. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2019. pp. 3132-3143
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Akcay, A, Martagan, T & Corlu, CG 2019, Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. in M Rabe, AA Juan, N Mustafee, A Skoogh, S Jain & B Johansson (eds), WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause., 8632314, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, pp. 3132-3143, 2018 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2018, Gothenburg, Sweden, 9/12/18. DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314

Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. / Akcay, Alp; Martagan, Tugce; Corlu, Canan G.

WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause. ed. / M. Rabe; A.A. Juan; N. Mustafee; A. Skoogh; S. Jain; B. Johansson. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2019. p. 3132-3143 8632314.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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Akcay A, Martagan T, Corlu CG. Risk assessment in pharmaceutical supply chains under unknown input-model parameters. In Rabe M, Juan AA, Mustafee N, Skoogh A, Jain S, Johansson B, editors, WSC 2018 - 2018 Winter Simulation Conference: Simulation for a Noble Cause. Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2019. p. 3132-3143. 8632314. Available from, DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2018.8632314