Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations

A. Schijndel, van, J. Wetzer, P.A.A.F. Wouters

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)
109 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The age of the majority of power transformers applied in the western electricity network varies between 25 and 50 years. Depending on the load history and time of operation, replacement on short term is imminent. A technically sound policy concerning the replacement of these assets must be based on knowledge of (i) the life expectancy or reliability of individual components, (ii) how these failure probabilities cumulate to a replacement wave, and (iii) how to manage an expected replacement wave. The population reliability is obtained from individual transformer reliabilities using Arrhenius based modelling of paper insulation degradation. This modelling technique includes measures to cope with inherent uncertainties in available data. Population reliability figures are obtained using an adapted k-out-of-N failure model. The modelling method is applied to existing populations of power transformers in The Netherlands, to evaluate their expected replacement wave.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationCondition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages1-4
ISBN (Print)978-1-4244-1621-9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

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Power transformers
Insulation
Electricity
Acoustic waves
Degradation

Cite this

Schijndel, van, A., Wetzer, J., & Wouters, P. A. A. F. (2008). Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations. In Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008 (pp. 1-4). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/CMD.2008.4580358
Schijndel, van, A. ; Wetzer, J. ; Wouters, P.A.A.F. / Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations. Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2008. pp. 1-4
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Schijndel, van, A, Wetzer, J & Wouters, PAAF 2008, Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations. in Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1109/CMD.2008.4580358

Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations. / Schijndel, van, A.; Wetzer, J.; Wouters, P.A.A.F.

Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2008. p. 1-4.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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AU - Wouters, P.A.A.F.

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N2 - The age of the majority of power transformers applied in the western electricity network varies between 25 and 50 years. Depending on the load history and time of operation, replacement on short term is imminent. A technically sound policy concerning the replacement of these assets must be based on knowledge of (i) the life expectancy or reliability of individual components, (ii) how these failure probabilities cumulate to a replacement wave, and (iii) how to manage an expected replacement wave. The population reliability is obtained from individual transformer reliabilities using Arrhenius based modelling of paper insulation degradation. This modelling technique includes measures to cope with inherent uncertainties in available data. Population reliability figures are obtained using an adapted k-out-of-N failure model. The modelling method is applied to existing populations of power transformers in The Netherlands, to evaluate their expected replacement wave.

AB - The age of the majority of power transformers applied in the western electricity network varies between 25 and 50 years. Depending on the load history and time of operation, replacement on short term is imminent. A technically sound policy concerning the replacement of these assets must be based on knowledge of (i) the life expectancy or reliability of individual components, (ii) how these failure probabilities cumulate to a replacement wave, and (iii) how to manage an expected replacement wave. The population reliability is obtained from individual transformer reliabilities using Arrhenius based modelling of paper insulation degradation. This modelling technique includes measures to cope with inherent uncertainties in available data. Population reliability figures are obtained using an adapted k-out-of-N failure model. The modelling method is applied to existing populations of power transformers in The Netherlands, to evaluate their expected replacement wave.

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BT - Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008

PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

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Schijndel, van A, Wetzer J, Wouters PAAF. Remaining lifetime modelling for replacement of power transformer populations. In Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis, 2008. CMD 2008. International Conference, Beijing, China, 21-24 April 2008. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2008. p. 1-4 https://doi.org/10.1109/CMD.2008.4580358