Preventing litigation with a predictive model of COVID-19 ICUs occupancy

Chiara Gallese, Elena Falletti, Marco S. Nobile, Lucrezia Ferrario, Fabrizio Schettini, Emanuela Foglia

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated an overall slowdown in hospital activities that might lead to delays in healthcare interventions, and the scarcity of resources can raise concerns about ventilators allocation criteria. These circumstances could lead to lawsuits against hospitals and healthcare professionals: together with Regions and States, they may be vulnerable to legal actions, due to the breach of right to health, to physical integrity and right to life, to the manifestation of the informed consent in the medical field or on the basis of contractual or Aquilian obligations. In this context, predicting the litigation rate could be useful to assess the economic impact of a dispute at a local and national level, so that hospital managers and public institutions can perform multi-dimensional and cost/benefit evaluations to decide whether to invest resources to increase critical care surge capacity. In this work we present CLIP (COVID-19 LItigation Prediction), a modeling approach supported by swarm intelligence designed to forecast the occupancy of intensive care units using COVID-19 time-series. CLIP fits a logistic model of COVID-19 patients admission in order to estimate the future number of patients, and then exploits a probabilistic model to predict the number of occupied intensive care beds, whose parameters are calibrated by means of Fuzzy Self-Tuning Particle Swarm Optimization. We assume that each individual rejected from an intensive care unit due to the lack of resources should be considered a potential plaintiff. The development and the availability of such a predictive model, that could further be used within other clinical conditions and important diseases, could help policy-makers in taking decisions under conditions of uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data, Big Data 2020
EditorsXintao Wu, Chris Jermaine, Li Xiong, Xiaohua Tony Hu, Olivera Kotevska, Siyuan Lu, Weijia Xu, Srinivas Aluru, Chengxiang Zhai, Eyhab Al-Masri, Zhiyuan Chen, Jeff Saltz
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages2111-2116
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-7281-6251-5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021
Event2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data) - Atlanta, United States
Duration: 10 Dec 202013 Dec 2020
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/9377717/proceeding

Conference

Conference2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data)
CountryUnited States
CityAtlanta
Period10/12/2013/12/20
Internet address

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • computational intelligence
  • litigation
  • modeling

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