Predictive analysis of q-profile influence on transport in JET and ASDEX Upgrade hybrid scenarios

Hybrid scenarios in present machines are often characterized by improved confinement compared with the IPB98(y,2) empirical scaling law expectations. This work concentrates on isolating the impact of increased s/q at outer radii (where s is the magnetic shear) on core confinement in low-triangularity JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) experiments. This is carried out by predictive heat and particle transport modelling using the integrated modelling code CRONOS coupled to the GLF23 turbulent transport model. For both machines, discharge pairs were analysed displaying similar pedestal confinement yet significant differences in core confinement. From these comparisons, it is found that s/q shaping at outer radii may be responsible for up to ~50% of the relative core confinement improvement observed in these specific discharges. This relative improvement is independent of the degree of rotational shear turbulence suppression assumed in the GLF23 model. However, employing the full GLF23 rotational shear model leads to an overprediction of the ion temperatures in all discharges analysed. Additional mechanisms for core confinement improvement are discussed and estimated. Further linear threshold analysis with QuaLiKiz is carried out on both pairs of discharges. This work aims to validate recent predictions of the ITER hybrid scenario also employing CRONOS/GLF23, where a high level of confinement and resultant fusion power sensitivity to the s/q profile was found.