Prediction of availability and charging rate at charging stations for electric vehicles

C. Bikcora, N. Refa, L. Verheijen, S. Weiland

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

To enable better smart charging solutions, this paper investigates the day-ahead probabilistic forecasting of the availability and the charging rate at charging stations for plug-in electric vehicles. Generalized linear models with logistic link functions are at the core of both forecast scenarios. Moreover, the availability forecast at a charging point is simply a binomial problem, whereas the charging rate forecast is handled via an ordered logistic model after categorizing the feasible range of values. These two scenarios are evaluated on real data collected from two representatives of the most occupied charging points in the Netherlands, with the focus of the analysis kept at the selection of essential regressors. Based on the ranked probability scores associated with the day-ahead forecasts generated for the last nine months of 2015, it is concluded that the usefulness of predictive models depends highly on the charging station. When contributing substantially to performance, such models possess a simple structure with a few basic lagged and indicator variables.
LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 16-20 Oct. 2016, Beijing, China
Place of PublicationPiscataway
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages1-6
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)978-1-5090-1970-0
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2016
Event2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016), Oct. 16-20, 2016, Beijing, China - Beijing Friendship Hotel, Beijing, China
Duration: 16 Oct 201620 Oct 2016
http://www.pmaps2016.org/

Conference

Conference2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016), Oct. 16-20, 2016, Beijing, China
Abbreviated titlePMAPS
CountryChina
CityBeijing
Period16/10/1620/10/16
Internet address

Fingerprint

Electric vehicles
Availability
Logistics

Cite this

Bikcora, C., Refa, N., Verheijen, L., & Weiland, S. (2016). Prediction of availability and charging rate at charging stations for electric vehicles. In International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 16-20 Oct. 2016, Beijing, China (pp. 1-6). Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS.2016.7764216
Bikcora, C. ; Refa, N. ; Verheijen, L. ; Weiland, S./ Prediction of availability and charging rate at charging stations for electric vehicles. International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 16-20 Oct. 2016, Beijing, China. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2016. pp. 1-6
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abstract = "To enable better smart charging solutions, this paper investigates the day-ahead probabilistic forecasting of the availability and the charging rate at charging stations for plug-in electric vehicles. Generalized linear models with logistic link functions are at the core of both forecast scenarios. Moreover, the availability forecast at a charging point is simply a binomial problem, whereas the charging rate forecast is handled via an ordered logistic model after categorizing the feasible range of values. These two scenarios are evaluated on real data collected from two representatives of the most occupied charging points in the Netherlands, with the focus of the analysis kept at the selection of essential regressors. Based on the ranked probability scores associated with the day-ahead forecasts generated for the last nine months of 2015, it is concluded that the usefulness of predictive models depends highly on the charging station. When contributing substantially to performance, such models possess a simple structure with a few basic lagged and indicator variables.",
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Bikcora, C, Refa, N, Verheijen, L & Weiland, S 2016, Prediction of availability and charging rate at charging stations for electric vehicles. in International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 16-20 Oct. 2016, Beijing, China. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, pp. 1-6, 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS 2016), Oct. 16-20, 2016, Beijing, China, Beijing, China, 16/10/16. DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS.2016.7764216

Prediction of availability and charging rate at charging stations for electric vehicles. / Bikcora, C.; Refa, N.; Verheijen, L.; Weiland, S.

International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 16-20 Oct. 2016, Beijing, China. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2016. p. 1-6.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

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Bikcora C, Refa N, Verheijen L, Weiland S. Prediction of availability and charging rate at charging stations for electric vehicles. In International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), 16-20 Oct. 2016, Beijing, China. Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2016. p. 1-6. Available from, DOI: 10.1109/PMAPS.2016.7764216