Predicting critical behaviors in business process executions: when evidence counts

Laura Genga, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini, Nicola Zannone

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
5 Downloads (Pure)


Organizations need to monitor the execution of their processes to ensure they comply with a set of constraints derived, e.g., by internal managerial choices or by external legal requirements. However, preventive systems that enforce users to adhere to the prescribed behavior are often too rigid for real-world processes, where users might need to deviate to react to unpredictable circumstances. An effective strategy for reducing the risks associated with those deviations is to predict whether undesired behaviors will occur in running process executions, thus allowing a process analyst to promptly respond to such violations. In this work, we present a predictive process monitoring technique based on Subjective Logic. Compared to previous work on predictive monitoring, our approach allows to easily customize both the reliability and sensitivity of the predictive system. We evaluate our approach on synthetic data, also comparing it with previous work.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationBusiness Process Management Forum - BPM Forum 2019, Proceedings
Subtitle of host publicationBPM Forum 2019, Vienna, Austria, September 1–6, 2019, Proceedings
EditorsThomas Hildebrandt, Boudewijn F. van Dongen, Maximilian RöglingeR, Jan Mendling
Place of PublicationCham
Number of pages19
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-26643-1
ISBN (Print)978-3-030-26642-4
Publication statusPublished - 17 Jul 2019
Event17th International Conference on Business Process Management (BPM 2019) - Austria, Vienna, Austria
Duration: 1 Sep 20196 Sep 2019
Conference number: 17

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Business Information Processing
ISSN (Print)1865-1348
ISSN (Electronic)1865-1356


Conference17th International Conference on Business Process Management (BPM 2019)
Abbreviated titleBPM 2019
Internet address


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