Abstract
We address the problem of online state and parameter estimation in hierarchical Bayesian nonlinear dynamic systems. We focus on the Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF), which is a popular model in the computational neuroscience literature. For this filter, explicit equations for online state estimation (and offline parameter estimation) have been derived before. We extend this work by casting the HGF as a probabilistic factor graph and present variational message passing update rules that facilitate both online state and parameter estimation as well as online tracking of the free energy (or ELBO), which can be used as a proxy for Bayesian evidence. Due to the locality and modularity of the factor graph framework, our approach supports application of HGF's and variations as plug-in modules to a wide variety of dynamic modelling applications.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | 2018 IEEE International Workshop on Machine Learning for Signal Processing, MLSP 2018 - Proceedings |
Editors | Nelly Pustelnik, Zheng-Hua Tan, Zhanyu Ma, Jan Larsen |
Place of Publication | Piscataway |
Publisher | IEEE Computer Society |
Number of pages | 6 |
Volume | 2018-September |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9781538654774 |
ISBN (Print) | 978-1-5386-5478-1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 17 Sept 2018 |
Event | 28th IEEE International Workshop on Machine Learning for Signal Processing, MLSP 2018 - Aalborg, Denmark Duration: 17 Sept 2018 → 20 Sept 2018 |
Conference
Conference | 28th IEEE International Workshop on Machine Learning for Signal Processing, MLSP 2018 |
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Country/Territory | Denmark |
City | Aalborg |
Period | 17/09/18 → 20/09/18 |
Keywords
- Dynamical systems
- Free energy
- Hierarchical Gaussian Filter
- Online state and parameter estimation
- Variational Message Passing