Online Prediction of Aggregated Retailer Consumer Behaviour

Yorick Spenrath; Marwan Hassani; Boudewijn F. van Dongen

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-98581-3_16

Online Prediction of Aggregated Retailer Consumer Behaviour

Yorick Spenrath, Marwan Hassani, Boudewijn F. van Dongen

Process Analytics

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Predicting the behaviour of consumers provides valuable information for retailers, such as the expected spend of a consumer or the total turnover of the retailer. The ability to make predictions on an individual level is useful, as it allows retailers to accurately perform targeted marketing. However, with the expected large number of consumers and their diverse behaviour, making accurate predictions on an individual consumer level is difficult. In this paper we present a framework that focuses on this trade-off in an online setting. By making predictions on a larger number of consumers at a time, we improve the predictive accuracy but at the cost of usefulness, as we can say less about the individual consumers. The framework is developed in an online setting, where we update the prediction model and make new predictions over time. We show the existence of the trade-off in an experimental evaluation on a real-world dataset consisting of 39 weeks of transaction data.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Process Mining Workshops - ICPM 2021 International Workshops, Revised Selected Papers
Editors	Jorge Munoz-Gama, Xixi Lu
Publisher	Springer
Pages	211-223
Number of pages	13
ISBN (Print)	9783030985806
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98581-3_16
Publication status	Published - 24 Mar 2022
Event	3rd International Conference on Process Mining, ICPM 2021 - Eindhoven, Netherlands Duration: 31 Oct 2021 → 4 Nov 2021 Conference number: 3

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing
Volume	433 LNBIP
ISSN (Print)	1865-1348
ISSN (Electronic)	1865-1356

Conference

Conference	3rd International Conference on Process Mining, ICPM 2021
Abbreviated title	ICPM 2021
Country/Territory	Netherlands
City	Eindhoven
Period	31/10/21 → 4/11/21
Other	3rd International Conference on Process Mining Doctoral Consortium and Demo Track, ICPM-D 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Keywords

Clustering
Consumer Behaviour
Stream Analysis

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-030-98581-3_16

Cite this

Spenrath, Y., Hassani, M., & van Dongen, B. F. (2022). Online Prediction of Aggregated Retailer Consumer Behaviour. In J. Munoz-Gama, & X. Lu (Eds.), Process Mining Workshops - ICPM 2021 International Workshops, Revised Selected Papers (pp. 211-223). (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing; Vol. 433 LNBIP). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98581-3_16

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title = "Online Prediction of Aggregated Retailer Consumer Behaviour",

abstract = "Predicting the behaviour of consumers provides valuable information for retailers, such as the expected spend of a consumer or the total turnover of the retailer. The ability to make predictions on an individual level is useful, as it allows retailers to accurately perform targeted marketing. However, with the expected large number of consumers and their diverse behaviour, making accurate predictions on an individual consumer level is difficult. In this paper we present a framework that focuses on this trade-off in an online setting. By making predictions on a larger number of consumers at a time, we improve the predictive accuracy but at the cost of usefulness, as we can say less about the individual consumers. The framework is developed in an online setting, where we update the prediction model and make new predictions over time. We show the existence of the trade-off in an experimental evaluation on a real-world dataset consisting of 39 weeks of transaction data.",

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Spenrath, Y, Hassani, M & van Dongen, BF 2022, Online Prediction of Aggregated Retailer Consumer Behaviour. in J Munoz-Gama & X Lu (eds), Process Mining Workshops - ICPM 2021 International Workshops, Revised Selected Papers. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol. 433 LNBIP, Springer, pp. 211-223, 3rd International Conference on Process Mining, ICPM 2021, Eindhoven, Netherlands, 31/10/21. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98581-3_16

Online Prediction of Aggregated Retailer Consumer Behaviour. / Spenrath, Yorick; Hassani, Marwan ; van Dongen, Boudewijn F.
Process Mining Workshops - ICPM 2021 International Workshops, Revised Selected Papers. ed. / Jorge Munoz-Gama; Xixi Lu. Springer, 2022. p. 211-223 (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing; Vol. 433 LNBIP).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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