On Bernoulli experiments with imprecise prior probabilities

F.P.A. Coolen

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

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Abstract

This paper deals with a situation where the prior distribution in a Bayesian treatment of a Bernoulli experiment is not known precisely. Imprecision for Bernoulli experiments is discussed for the case where the prior densities are defined in the form of intervals of measures, and a simple model with conjugate imprecise prior densities is used for ease of calculation in case of updating. Attention is focussed on imprecision with regard to predictive probabilities. The main aim of the paper is an analysis of imprecision, emphasizing the important relation between information and imprecision. This paper contributes to the theory advocated by Walley (1991). Imprecision within the chosen model is compared to intuition, and it is shown that complete lack of prior information can be reasonably well represented. Key Words: Bayesian analysis, Bernoulli experiments, conjugate prior densities, imprecision, information, intervals of measures, predictive probabilities.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationEindhoven
PublisherTechnische Universiteit Eindhoven
Number of pages24
Publication statusPublished - 1992

Publication series

NameMemorandum COSOR
Volume9219
ISSN (Print)0926-4493

Fingerprint

Imprecise Probabilities
Prior Probability
Imprecision
Bernoulli
Experiment
Conjugate prior
Interval
Prior Information
Bayesian Analysis
Prior distribution
Updating
Model

Cite this

Coolen, F. P. A. (1992). On Bernoulli experiments with imprecise prior probabilities. (Memorandum COSOR; Vol. 9219). Eindhoven: Technische Universiteit Eindhoven.
Coolen, F.P.A. / On Bernoulli experiments with imprecise prior probabilities. Eindhoven : Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, 1992. 24 p. (Memorandum COSOR).
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Coolen, FPA 1992, On Bernoulli experiments with imprecise prior probabilities. Memorandum COSOR, vol. 9219, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Eindhoven.

On Bernoulli experiments with imprecise prior probabilities. / Coolen, F.P.A.

Eindhoven : Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, 1992. 24 p. (Memorandum COSOR; Vol. 9219).

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

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AU - Coolen, F.P.A.

PY - 1992

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N2 - This paper deals with a situation where the prior distribution in a Bayesian treatment of a Bernoulli experiment is not known precisely. Imprecision for Bernoulli experiments is discussed for the case where the prior densities are defined in the form of intervals of measures, and a simple model with conjugate imprecise prior densities is used for ease of calculation in case of updating. Attention is focussed on imprecision with regard to predictive probabilities. The main aim of the paper is an analysis of imprecision, emphasizing the important relation between information and imprecision. This paper contributes to the theory advocated by Walley (1991). Imprecision within the chosen model is compared to intuition, and it is shown that complete lack of prior information can be reasonably well represented. Key Words: Bayesian analysis, Bernoulli experiments, conjugate prior densities, imprecision, information, intervals of measures, predictive probabilities.

AB - This paper deals with a situation where the prior distribution in a Bayesian treatment of a Bernoulli experiment is not known precisely. Imprecision for Bernoulli experiments is discussed for the case where the prior densities are defined in the form of intervals of measures, and a simple model with conjugate imprecise prior densities is used for ease of calculation in case of updating. Attention is focussed on imprecision with regard to predictive probabilities. The main aim of the paper is an analysis of imprecision, emphasizing the important relation between information and imprecision. This paper contributes to the theory advocated by Walley (1991). Imprecision within the chosen model is compared to intuition, and it is shown that complete lack of prior information can be reasonably well represented. Key Words: Bayesian analysis, Bernoulli experiments, conjugate prior densities, imprecision, information, intervals of measures, predictive probabilities.

M3 - Report

T3 - Memorandum COSOR

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Coolen FPA. On Bernoulli experiments with imprecise prior probabilities. Eindhoven: Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, 1992. 24 p. (Memorandum COSOR).