More gray hair – but for whom? : scenario-based simulations of elderly activity travel patterns in 2020

T.A. Arentze, H.J.P. Timmermans, P. Jorritsma, M-J Olde Kalter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

33 Citations (Scopus)
3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper reports the results of a scenario-based simulation study to explore mobility effects of an aging society in the Netherlands. Four accumulative behavioral scenario variants, embedded in an economic and demographic scenario are used to simulate possible future activity-travel patterns, using the Albatross system as the simulator. The variants account for likely differences in activity-travel behavior between elderly today and elderly in the future. Trends ongoing over the last decade in the Netherlands suggest that future elderly need to work longer, change their activity pattern with most growth occurring in the social/leisure activity category, will try to avoid morning peak hours by rescheduling their activities and may introduce more spatial diversity in terms of their residence location. Results show that these behavioral and spatial changes lead to a significant increase in travel demands as well as temporal, spatial and modal shifts in mobility patterns. We discuss possible policy implications of these predictions and evaluate the specific strength of activity-based models for studies of this kind.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)613-627
Number of pages15
JournalTransportation
Volume35
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'More gray hair – but for whom? : scenario-based simulations of elderly activity travel patterns in 2020'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this