Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning

W. Du, P.W.G. Bots, J.G. Slootweg

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionProfessional

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Abstract

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany
Place of PublicationPiscataway
PublisherCIRED
Pages1-4
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Event21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011) - Frankfurt, Germany
Duration: 6 Jun 20119 Jun 2011
Conference number: 21

Conference

Conference21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011)
Abbreviated titleCIRED 2011
CountryGermany
CityFrankfurt
Period6/06/119/06/11

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Electricity
Planning
Electric potential
Monte Carlo simulation

Cite this

Du, W., Bots, P. W. G., & Slootweg, J. G. (2011). Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany (pp. 1-4). Piscataway: CIRED.
Du, W. ; Bots, P.W.G. ; Slootweg, J.G. / Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany. Piscataway : CIRED, 2011. pp. 1-4
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title = "Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning",
abstract = "This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.",
author = "W. Du and P.W.G. Bots and J.G. Slootweg",
year = "2011",
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booktitle = "Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany",
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Du, W, Bots, PWG & Slootweg, JG 2011, Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. in Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany. CIRED, Piscataway, pp. 1-4, 21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011), Frankfurt, Germany, 6/06/11.

Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. / Du, W.; Bots, P.W.G.; Slootweg, J.G.

Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany. Piscataway : CIRED, 2011. p. 1-4.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionProfessional

TY - GEN

T1 - Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning

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N2 - This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.

AB - This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.

M3 - Conference contribution

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BT - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany

PB - CIRED

CY - Piscataway

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Du W, Bots PWG, Slootweg JG. Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. In Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany. Piscataway: CIRED. 2011. p. 1-4