Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning

W. Du; P.W.G. Bots; J.G. Slootweg

Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning

W. Du, P.W.G. Bots, J.G. Slootweg

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Abstract

This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany
Place of Publication	Piscataway
Publisher	CIRED
Pages	1-4
Publication status	Published - 2011
Event	21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011) - Frankfurt, Germany Duration: 6 Jun 2011 → 9 Jun 2011 Conference number: 21

Conference

Conference	21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011)
Abbreviated title	CIRED 2011
Country/Territory	Germany
City	Frankfurt
Period	6/06/11 → 9/06/11

Cite this

@inproceedings{756028114d3e48b78eb841174f76703a,

title = "Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning",

abstract = "This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.",

author = "W. Du and P.W.G. Bots and J.G. Slootweg",

year = "2011",

language = "English",

pages = "1--4",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany",

publisher = "CIRED",

note = "21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011), CIRED 2011 ; Conference date: 06-06-2011 Through 09-06-2011",

}

Du, W, Bots, PWG & Slootweg, JG 2011, Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. in Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany. CIRED, Piscataway, pp. 1-4, 21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011), Frankfurt, Germany, 6/06/11.

Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning. / Du, W.; Bots, P.W.G.; Slootweg, J.G.
Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany. Piscataway: CIRED, 2011. p. 1-4.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Professional

TY - GEN

T1 - Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning

AU - Du, W.

AU - Bots, P.W.G.

AU - Slootweg, J.G.

N1 - Conference code: 21

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.

AB - This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation method for generating stochastic load profiles for models of low voltage (LV) electricity grids to support middle- and long-term strategic asset planning processes. Models that calculate aggregated loads in a deterministic way using a coincidence coefficient (simultaneity factor) do not give insight in the probability of an overload and eventual asset failure. Analysis of minute-to-minute load data obtained with Monte Carlo simulation, based on the characteristics and behaviour patterns of different household types, can provide more accurate probabilities of peak loads, especially for subordinate grids where individual consumption ehaviours have relatively high impacts. Calculating this indicator for different future scenarios can help improve LV distribution grid capacity planning down to the component level.

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 1

EP - 4

BT - Proceedings of the 21st International Conference on Electricity Distribution (CIRED2011), 6-9 June 2011, Frankfurt, Germany

PB - CIRED

CY - Piscataway

T2 - 21st International Conference and Exhibition on Electricity Distribution (CIRED 2011)

Y2 - 6 June 2011 through 9 June 2011

ER -

Monte Carlo simulation of load profiles for low-voltage electricity distribution grid asset planning

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