Modelling usage volatility in long term distribution grid and -operations planning, a Dutch case study

The way we use our power distribution grids is changing profoundly. Electrification of transport, heating and decentral generation introduce new usage patterns, storage and IoT change existing ones. Grid usage is becoming more volatile: there is an increase of weather‐dependent applications, dynamic tariffs, and price incentives enable users to adapt their usage. This affects the power flows in the distribution grids, day‐to‐day operations and the grid planning needs to change towards a paradigm where this volatility is taken better into account.
In this article, we propose a decision framework for distribution grid planning and ‐operation that incorporates effects of more volatile usage patterns. The framework contains an approach for usage pattern classification and metrics for measuring the level and type of dynamic usage in a grid. Based on level and type of volatility, the framework supports the DSO in choosing a mode of operation of operation that matches the level and type of volatility as well as the risk appetite for specific parts of the distribution grid. The approach is applied to the grids of the Dutch DSO Stedin, making use of the Integrated Infrastructure outlook 2030‐2050 (II3050) Stedin’s Energy Transition Impact Assessment Model (SETIAM) datasets