Modelling complex activity-travel scheduling decisions: procedure for the simultaneous estimation of activity generation and duration functions

E.W.L. Nijland, T.A. Arentze, A.W.J. Borgers, H.J.P. Timmermans

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Abstract

Activity generation is a key factor in individual’s choices of trip frequency and trip purpose. This paper describes the results of an experiment conducted to estimate functions of several temporal factors on individuals’ propensity to schedule a given activity on a given day. The theory on which the experimental design is based states that the probability of scheduling an activity is a complex and continuous function of how long ago the activity was lastly performed, the time available for the activity and the amount of discretionary time in the activity schedule of the day considered. Aurora, an existing model of activity scheduling, assumes S-shaped utility functions for the history as well as the duration functions, whereas most time-use studies assume monotonically decreasing marginal utilities. The stated-choice experiment involves a range of flexible activities and a large sample of individuals, to measure the utility effects of a set of carefully chosen levels for the factors and test these specific assumptions. The results suggest that the amount of discretionary time has no significant impact on the scheduling decisions provided that enough time is available for the activity. The effects of other factors are as expected and show diminishing marginal utilities. We find mixed evidence for an initial phase of increasing marginal returns as assumed in an S-shaped function.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 11th Conference on Travel Behaviour Research, Kyoto, Japan
Pages1-18
Publication statusPublished - 2006
Event11th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR 2006), August 16-20, 2006, Kyoto, Japan - Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Duration: 16 Aug 200620 Aug 2006
http://trans.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/iatbr06/

Conference

Conference11th International Conference on Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR 2006), August 16-20, 2006, Kyoto, Japan
Abbreviated titleIATBR 2006
CountryJapan
CityKyoto
Period16/08/0620/08/06
Other"The Expanding Sphere of Travel Behaviour Research"
Internet address

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