Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach

Roozbeh Torkzadeh; Ahmad Mirzaei; Mohammad Mehdi Mirjalili; Alireza Sedighi Anaraki; Mohammad Reza Sehhati; Farideh Behdad

doi:10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500

Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach

Roozbeh Torkzadeh, Ahmad Mirzaei, Mohammad Mehdi Mirjalili, Alireza Sedighi Anaraki, Mohammad Reza Sehhati, Farideh Behdad

Electrical Energy Systems

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

An accurate medium term load forecast (MTLF) is essential for expansion planning studies of distribution systems. Also the mid-term electric load as a function of time has a complex nonlinear behavior which makes the ordinary linear prediction methods seems insufficient. In this paper, a combination of multi linear regression and principle components analysis is used to predict weekly electrical peak load of Yazd city distribution system. According to the prediction results, main benefits of proposed method are simplicity of calculations and high accuracy forecasting for multi-horizon predictions. MATLAB© is used to implement the forecaster model.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014
Place of Publication	Piscataway
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Pages	66-70
Number of pages	5
ISBN (Electronic)	9781479956364
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500
Publication status	Published - 6 May 2014
Event	2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014 - Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of Duration: 6 May 2014 → 7 May 2014

Conference

Conference	2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014
Country/Territory	Iran, Islamic Republic of
City	Tehran
Period	6/05/14 → 7/05/14

Keywords

correlation analysis
mid-term load forecast
multi linear regression
principel components analysis

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10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500

Cite this

Torkzadeh, R., Mirzaei, A., Mirjalili, M. M., Anaraki, A. S., Sehhati, M. R., & Behdad, F. (2014). Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach. In 2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014 (pp. 66-70). Article 6867500 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500

Torkzadeh, Roozbeh ; Mirzaei, Ahmad ; Mirjalili, Mohammad Mehdi et al. / Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach : A novel approach. 2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014. Piscataway : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2014. pp. 66-70

@inproceedings{049f76c299364366a483eccecdbf69a3,

title = "Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach",

abstract = "An accurate medium term load forecast (MTLF) is essential for expansion planning studies of distribution systems. Also the mid-term electric load as a function of time has a complex nonlinear behavior which makes the ordinary linear prediction methods seems insufficient. In this paper, a combination of multi linear regression and principle components analysis is used to predict weekly electrical peak load of Yazd city distribution system. According to the prediction results, main benefits of proposed method are simplicity of calculations and high accuracy forecasting for multi-horizon predictions. MATLAB{\textcopyright} is used to implement the forecaster model.",

keywords = "correlation analysis, mid-term load forecast, multi linear regression, principel components analysis",

author = "Roozbeh Torkzadeh and Ahmad Mirzaei and Mirjalili, {Mohammad Mehdi} and Anaraki, {Alireza Sedighi} and Sehhati, {Mohammad Reza} and Farideh Behdad",

year = "2014",

month = may,

day = "6",

doi = "10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500",

language = "English",

pages = "66--70",

booktitle = "2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014",

publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers",

address = "United States",

note = "2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014 ; Conference date: 06-05-2014 Through 07-05-2014",

}

Torkzadeh, R, Mirzaei, A, Mirjalili, MM, Anaraki, AS, Sehhati, MR & Behdad, F 2014, Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach. in 2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014., 6867500, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Piscataway, pp. 66-70, 2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014, Tehran, Iran, Islamic Republic of, 6/05/14. https://doi.org/10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500

Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach. / Torkzadeh, Roozbeh; Mirzaei, Ahmad; Mirjalili, Mohammad Mehdi et al.
2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014. Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2014. p. 66-70 6867500.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Academic › peer-review

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T1 - Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach

T2 - 2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014

AU - Torkzadeh, Roozbeh

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AU - Mirjalili, Mohammad Mehdi

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AU - Sehhati, Mohammad Reza

AU - Behdad, Farideh

PY - 2014/5/6

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N2 - An accurate medium term load forecast (MTLF) is essential for expansion planning studies of distribution systems. Also the mid-term electric load as a function of time has a complex nonlinear behavior which makes the ordinary linear prediction methods seems insufficient. In this paper, a combination of multi linear regression and principle components analysis is used to predict weekly electrical peak load of Yazd city distribution system. According to the prediction results, main benefits of proposed method are simplicity of calculations and high accuracy forecasting for multi-horizon predictions. MATLAB© is used to implement the forecaster model.

AB - An accurate medium term load forecast (MTLF) is essential for expansion planning studies of distribution systems. Also the mid-term electric load as a function of time has a complex nonlinear behavior which makes the ordinary linear prediction methods seems insufficient. In this paper, a combination of multi linear regression and principle components analysis is used to predict weekly electrical peak load of Yazd city distribution system. According to the prediction results, main benefits of proposed method are simplicity of calculations and high accuracy forecasting for multi-horizon predictions. MATLAB© is used to implement the forecaster model.

KW - correlation analysis

KW - mid-term load forecast

KW - multi linear regression

KW - principel components analysis

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Torkzadeh R, Mirzaei A, Mirjalili MM, Anaraki AS, Sehhati MR, Behdad F. Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach. In 2014 19th Conference on Electrical Power Distribution Networks, EPDC 2014. Piscataway: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. 2014. p. 66-70. 6867500 doi: 10.1109/EPDC.2014.6867500

Medium term load forecasting in distribution systems based on multi linear regression & principal component analysis: A novel approach: A novel approach

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