Latent class model accounting for information preference heterogeneity in activity-travel scheduling decisions under multiple uncertain events

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Abstract

Travel information plays a central role in reducing uncertainty and persuading travelers to act in particular ways. It may result in activity-travel rescheduling decisions. The modeling of such behavior is relatively complex as it goes beyond simple route/link choice. Moreover, it involves multiple uncertain events that may appear at different points in the future. In addition, travelers may differ in their preferences toward travel information, or in other words, travelers may differ in their willingness to pay for information if the information acquisition involves costs. This paper develops a decision model that incorporates these aspects and reports the main results of an interactive computer experiment which was developed to collect data on activity-travel rescheduling under multiple uncertain events and information acquisition. The heterogeneity of travelers' preferences on travel information is captured by a latent class model that incorporated the decision models. Data ware collected using a web based activity travel simulator. Results of the model estimation indicate that travelers indeed have different preferences on information price. This together with other estimated parameters suggests that travelers can be distinguished into three classes of risk attitudes. Estimated classes differ in terms of their preference for information as a means of reducing risk.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTRAIL in perspective; 10th international TRAIL congress
EditorsH.J. Zuylen, van, A.J. Binsbergen, van
Place of PublicationDelft
PublisherTechnische Universiteit Delft
Pages233-254
ISBN (Print)978-90-5584-112-7
Publication statusPublished - 2008

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