Introducing uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in non-modifiable building performance software

If using simulation tools for predicting the overall building performance, important decisions concerning the input of those tools need to be taken. The input is based on experience but also assumptions. It is obvious that this introduces uncertainties on which the quality of the simulation output is dependent. It is self-explanatory that there is a demand for analyzing and quantifying those uncertainties regarding their impact on the building design. Therefore a case study is described to evaluate the necessity to use uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA) in building performance simulation (BPS) especially during the detailed design. The experimental set-up using an UA and SA performing tool called Simlab coupled with a commercial and in the Netherlands commonly-used simulation tool VA114 is described. Furthermore, some results indicating the impact of UA and SA for detailed design decision support are presented. Finally, future steps are discussed in terms of how this research will be accomplished.