Integrated Modeling of Residential Relocation, Move Out Type, Work Place Relocation, and Employment Type Mobility: A Large Scale Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach

Residence and work-related choices are commonly assumed interdependent and associated with other individuals’ and households’ life events as well as people’s socio-demographics. This paper proposes an integrated dynamic model to capture determinants of residential and work-related mobilities, taking into account their associations with other life events. The change of employment is modeled with its multidimensional features, i.e., change of working hours and work place, while residential mobility is modeled through the residential relocation as well as the selection of part or all members in the household who move in or out. The micro-population data from 2015 to 2019 provided by the Netherlands CBS (Census Bureau of Statistics) are used to train and validate a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model. The integrated model has a high prediction accuracy with an average of 89.77% across the life events. The results suggest other life events, such as getting married or divorced, significantly affect the relocation of residence, while changes in employment type strongly influence work place relocation. However, the relocations of residence and work place in the Netherlands are not directly intertwined.