Improving risk analysis using GDSS: an experimental approach

Risk analyses are often performed by individuals who often have difficulties evaluating a project in its entirety due to a complex environment This study suggests that groups might be bletter equipped than individuals to tackle such decision prob1ems. However. there are many different types of groups which can be used; and it is unclear which type is most suitable. An experiment was designed and executed which tests the performance of four different types of groups while completing the risk analysis task. Based on the literature. it was hypothesized that the Group Decision Support System (GDSS) and Nominal Group Technique (NGl) conditions would outperform the other two baseline conditions: the freely interacting group. and the pooled individuals group. Results show that out of the different hypotheses, significance was observed on five of the six hypotheses. Although it appeared that the GDSS and NGT conditions did better in comparison to the freely interacting and pooled individuals conditions, it was not totaIly clear as to which of the two test conditions (GDSS and NGT) were superior across the different types of decision making tasks. This was deduced by the lack of concurrencd on the various dependent measures. This experiment begins at speculating how different stages io the decision making process can be facilitated and/or damaged by using a particular type of group.