Abstract
We investigate the probability that an insurance portfolio gets ruined within a finite time period under the assumption that the r largest claims are (partly) reinsured. We show that for regularly varying claim sizes the probability of ruin after reinsurance is also regularly varying in terms of the initial capital, and derive an explicit asymptotic expression for the latter. We establish this result by leveraging recent developments on sample-path large deviations for heavy tails. Our results allow, on the asymptotic level, for an explicit comparison between two well-known large-claim reinsurance contracts, namely LCR and ECOMOR. Finally, we assess the accuracy of the resulting approximations using state-of-the-art rare event simulation techniques.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 513-530 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Journal of Applied Probability |
| Volume | 57 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jun 2020 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:H.A. and E.V. acknowledge financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 200021_168993. B.C. and B.Z. are supported by NWO VICI grant # 639.033.413 of the Dutch Science Foundation.
Publisher Copyright:
©
Funding
H.A. and E.V. acknowledge financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation Project 200021_168993. B.C. and B.Z. are supported by NWO VICI grant # 639.033.413 of the Dutch Science Foundation.
Keywords
- ECOMOR
- heavy tails
- Keywords: finite-time ruin probabilities
- large deviations
- large-claim reinsurance