Exploring the impact of residential relocation on modal shift in commute trips: Evidence from a quasi-longitudinal analysis

A growing number of studies have been devoted to the effects of residential relocation on travel behavior. However, most of these studies only focus on the direct effects of personal and system characteristics; while, residential relocation may trigger several interrelated changes in activity-travel behavior and mobility resources. This paper studies the mode choice of commuters who used active transport before relocating. Results from a Bayesian network (BN) analysis, trained on retrospective data collected in Nanjing, China, are presented. The constructed BN identifies significant statistical associations between modal shift and selected explanatory variables, which include movers’ socio-demographic characteristics, relocation-related attributes, and changes in built environment. Specifically, car ownership, income, additional car purchase, specific housing type and size, relocation type, change in commute distance, convenience of subway/bus for commuting, and distance to subway station are found to be important factors when deciding to switch from private car to public transit.