Exploring the future of Mobility as a Service (MaaS): A co-design approach to scenario planning in European cities

This article contributes to the discourse on Mobility as a Service (MaaS) by presenting four plausible scenarios for its development in Europe up to 2030. Unlike previous scenario studies, which often relied on desk research or focused on narrow contexts, this study employs a co-design methodology that involved interdisciplinary experts from both public and private sectors across Europe. Their perspectives are integrated throughout the process, from identifying key uncertainties to building the scenario narratives. This approach supports a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities shaping MaaS futures. The four resulting scenarios (i.e. Mobility Walled Garden, Open Data Power in Standby, Everyone on Their Own, and Open Ecosystem) reflect how different configurations of market competition and API openness shape the trajectory of MaaS. While open standards and interoperability emerge as key enablers, their impact depends on the presence of supportive governance and institutional coordination. Imbalances, such as strong data frameworks without market diversity, or open competition with fragmented and poorly coordinated services, can weaken long-term system resilience. The scenario framework offers a structured lens for anticipating these tensions and guiding strategic decisions in MaaS development.