Explaining soccer match outcomes with goal scoring opportunities predictive analytics

H. Eggels, R. van Elk, M. Pechenizkiy

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)
38 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

In elite soccer, decisions are often based on recent results and emotions. In this paper, we propose a method to determine the expected winner of a match in elite soccer. The expected result of a soccer match is determined by estimating the probability of scoring for the individual goal scoring opportunities. The outcome of a match is then obtained by integrating these probabilities. In our experimental study, we show that the probabilities of goal scoring opportunities accurately match reality.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics 2016 co-located with the 2016 European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML/PKDD 2016)
PublisherCEUR-WS.org
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Event3rd Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics (MLSA 2016) - Riva del Garda, Italy
Duration: 19 Sep 201619 Sep 2016
Conference number: 3

Publication series

NameCEUR Workshop Proceedings
Volume1842
ISSN (Print)1613-0073

Conference

Conference3rd Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics (MLSA 2016)
Abbreviated titleMLSA 2016
CountryItaly
CityRiva del Garda
Period19/09/1619/09/16

Keywords

  • Predictive modeling
  • Scoring opportunity
  • Soccer analytics

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  • Cite this

    Eggels, H., van Elk, R., & Pechenizkiy, M. (2016). Explaining soccer match outcomes with goal scoring opportunities predictive analytics. In Proceedings of the Workshop on Machine Learning and Data Mining for Sports Analytics 2016 co-located with the 2016 European Conference on Machine Learning and Principles and Practice of Knowledge Discovery in Databases (ECML/PKDD 2016) (CEUR Workshop Proceedings; Vol. 1842). CEUR-WS.org.