Experts' stated behavior

Y. Boulaksil, P.H. Franses

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

Abstract

We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received modelbased forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationRotterdam
PublisherErasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM)
Number of pages17
Publication statusPublished - 2008

Publication series

NameERIM Report Series
VolumeERS-2008-001-MKT

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Boulaksil, Y., & Franses, P. H. (2008). Experts' stated behavior. (ERIM Report Series; Vol. ERS-2008-001-MKT). Rotterdam: Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM).
Boulaksil, Y. ; Franses, P.H. / Experts' stated behavior. Rotterdam : Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), 2008. 17 p. (ERIM Report Series).
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Boulaksil, Y & Franses, PH 2008, Experts' stated behavior. ERIM Report Series, vol. ERS-2008-001-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), Rotterdam.

Experts' stated behavior. / Boulaksil, Y.; Franses, P.H.

Rotterdam : Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), 2008. 17 p. (ERIM Report Series; Vol. ERS-2008-001-MKT).

Research output: Book/ReportReportAcademic

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AB - We ask various experts, who produce sales forecasts that can differ from earlier received modelbased forecasts, what they do and why they do so. A questionnaire with a range of questions was completed by no less than forty-two such experts who are located in twenty different countries. We correlate the answers to these questions with actual behavior of the experts. Our main findings are that experts have a tendency to double count and to react strongly to recent volatility in sales data. Also, experts who feel more confident give forecasts that differ most from model-based forecasts.

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Boulaksil Y, Franses PH. Experts' stated behavior. Rotterdam: Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), 2008. 17 p. (ERIM Report Series).