Estimating panel effects in probabilistic representations of dynamic decision trees using bayesian generalized linear mixture models

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Abstract

When collecting panel data, we need to acknowledge that responses do not represent independent measurements. The known apparatus in transportation research offers several opportunities to estimate panel effects for well-known and widely applied models such as hazard and dynamic logit models. However, the transportation research community is not endowed with a rich set of methods to account for panel effects in dynamic probabilistic decision trees, which have been used as a formalism for the representation of decision heuristics. Building on scarce prior work in statistics, we elaborate an approach to estimate panel effects in dynamic probabilistic decision trees with multinomial action states. Given that panel data naturally have a hierarchical structure with repeated measures nested within individuals, we implement a mixed-effects model that simultaneously accounts for population-level effects (fixed effects), between-individual variances (random effects), and within-individual variances (autocorrelations). The approach uses an iterative estimation procedure between CHAID-based probabilistic tree induction and Bayesian generalized linear mixture modeling (GLMM). When extracting the dynamic probabilistic decision trees, it is assumed that the random effects are known, while it is assumed that the fixed effects are known when estimating the Bayesian GLMM. This iterative process continues until convergence is reached. A Monte Carlo technique is used to navigate between aggregate choice probabilities and individual level multinomial choices. We also test the significance of temporal autocorrelation within individuals. The suggested approach is illustrated using charging station choice of users of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEV). Results support the potential value of the suggested approach.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)168-184
Number of pages17
JournalTransportation Research. Part B: Methodological
Volume111
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2018

Keywords

  • Charging station choice
  • Dynamic decision tree
  • Panel effects
  • Random effects
  • Temporal autocorrelation

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